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REMEMBER DECLINE OF ’62? HISTORY SEEMS TO BE REPEATING

SHARE REMEMBER DECLINE OF ’62? HISTORY SEEMS TO BE REPEATING

"After the 1962 decline," notes The Primary Trend (700 N. Water St., Milwaukee, WI 53202), "the stock market climbed the proverbial wall of worry, just as it is doing now, with the Dow barely suffering a correction worthy of the name. All the while, the market was bumping up against various parameters of fundamental overvaluation, such as high price/earnings ratios and dividend yields, just as it is today. Could history keep repeating itself? Very definitely."

- In evaluating a stock, BMI Capital in Manhattan pretends it's buying the company and tries to determine how long it would take to get its money out. BMI usually limits its purchases to stocks it believes it can recover its capital from in five years. Such selectivity has allowed BMI to outperform all the major indices since 1979, generating 24.3 percent average annual returns. Current cash-on-cash plays: Apple, Bergen Brunswig, Danaher, ITT, Information Resources, Intel and Fred Meyer.- If you're looking for a minimum 12 percent total return from your stocks, observes Frank Cappiello of PBS' "Wall Street Week," you can choose one of two routes: utility stocks, for 6 percent yield and 6 percent growth, or growth stocks, for 3 percent yield and 9 percent growth. Given current market uncertainties, Cappiello now favors the utility route, offering three strong buys from the three utility sectors: Houston Industries (electric), Pacific Enterprises (gas) and Southern New England Telephone (phone).

- When you combine a low stock price with heavy insider buying and a strong relative strength chart, you have a technician's dream formula for market profits. According to Investor's Intelligence (30 Church Street, New Rochelle, N.Y. 10801), seven issues now enjoy this three-sided advantage: Cagles, Commodore International, Dairy Mart, Lamson & Sessions, Pier I Imports, WMS Industries and West America Bancorp.

- Dow Theory Letter (P.O. Box 1759, La Jolla, CA 92038) is positively glowing on gold. "Gold is the ultimate money. We're buying it because we see what Congress and the last administration did about the deficits, and what Congress and this administration are now doing - nothing. When gold does move, those not holding it will be left at the starting gate. Gold moves on emotions. Buy it when no one else wants it. Now is one of those times."

- "While interest rates were declining recently, bonds continued to flounder," notes Investech Market Letter (2472 Birch Glen, Whitefish, MT 59937). "Either investors who've been scrambling to lock in bond yields are going to be very disappointed, or two of the most reliable bond timing models are going to be very wrong. Our bond Advanced Risk Index remains bearish. And Ned Davis' Bondo Grande has dropped to its most pessimistic level since before the 1987 crash."

- "The Japanese stock market produced a 788 percent gain for U.S. investors over the past decade, when currency fluctuations were included," observes Dessauer's Journal (P.O. Box 1718, Orleans, MA 02653). "Hong Kong stocks rose 470 percent. The vaunted U.S. market rally, on the other hand, produced just a 163 percent run-up. Use common sense in developing an international portfolio. Concentrate on markets still selling at bargain prices. The next 10 years are likely to be even better than the last."

Investor's Notebook reflects the opinions of professionals. It does not endorse specific investments, and no endorsement is implied or should be inferred. For more information, contact the individual firms cited. (C) 1989 Universal Press Syndicate 4900 Main St., Kansas City, MO 64112.