As President Bush wraps up a two-day meeting Saturday in Costa Rica with 17 Latin American heads of state - the first such Pan-American summit in more than 20 years - some observers will be looking for evidences of new U.S. policy towards its southern neighbors.
Unfortunately, the summit is mostly froth and little substance. Bush apparently is in a defensive posture with only one objective in mind - don't make any mistakes and don't antagonize anyone, except perhaps Daniel Ortega of Nicargua, by ignoring him.To accomplish that, the president is not making a speech at the conference, is not speaking with Ortega, and will not sign any joint agreement at the summit's conclusion. Only one private working session is being held.
Lacking those elements, it is hard to believe the summit can accomplish much.
Topics on the agenda include development, debt, drugs, deforestation and the collapse of the international price of coffee.
A major problem for Bush is the presence of Ortega. The summit is supposed to be a meeting of democratically elected leaders gathered to celebrate the 100th anniversary of democracy in Costa Rica. As Bush has noted, it is "ironic" for Ortega to be present since Nicaragua could hardly be classified as a democracy.
Panama, Cuba, Chile and Haiti have been excluded from the summit since their leaders are not democratically elected. While Panama's Noriega is not present, he does cast a shadow over the proceeding.
Many Latin leaders are nervous about efforts by the United States to depose Noriega. While they may not like Noriega's military regime, they are even more concerned about American intervention.
They have a point, since the giant to the north has a long history of military intervention or subversion in the affairs of Latin nations.
Much of the summit is being devoted to a careful reading of Bush and his intentions - which is why the president is trying to be as innocuous as possible and avoid any confrontations. He is studiously ignoring Ortega, who has been pushing for a private meeting. However, Bush may make time to meet privately with some other Latin heads of state.
Western diplomats say the conference has so little substance that not much can go wrong.
The best that Bush can do under the circumstances is to leave Latin leaders with a favorable personal impression - one of understanding their fears, of being willing to help, and being opposed to U.S. involvement or the use of troops in coups, revolutions or unrest in other independent states.