The Bush-Gorbachev meeting Dec. 2 and 3 aboard American and Soviet naval vessels in the Mediterranean Sea could easily go down in history as the surprise summit or maybe even as the non-summit summit.
That's because the meeting was announced Tuesday with practically no advance notice that it was even being considered, because there is no agenda for this comparatively informal meeting, and because it is no substitute for the full-scale summit that is still planned for next year.Even so, there are still benefits to be gained from the sudden summit as long as the public does not expect many concrete results and the two leaders avoid letting themselves be pushed into making hasty decisions just because they happen to share the spotlight.
Despite the lack of a formal agenda, there certainly is much for Bush and Gorbachev to discuss. Consider, for starters, just some of the key events that have taken place since the two met briefly in New York 11 months ago when Bush was still vice president:
- In Poland, the Solidarity union movement has taken over in the Parliament from the Communist Party after free elections.
- Hungary has become a multi-party state and is considering dropping out of the Warsaw Pact, the communist bloc's version of NATO.
- The Iron Curtain has developed some large holes, with a steady and sizeable stream of people opting to leave Eastern Europe and make their futures in the West.
- Even Bulgaria and Romania, both hard-core remnants of the worst days of Stalinism, are talking of easing economic and political restrictions.
- Though Russia has been swept by some amazing reforms, it also has been swept by street demonstrations because the reforms have not achieved as much as Soviet citizens would like. At the same time, the Soviet old guard tends to feel Gorbachev has gone too far. As a result of these conflicting pressures, there are persistent doubts about how long Gorbachev can remain in power.
Under these circumstances, Gorbachev stands to gain from the unexpected summit next month if only because of the widespread tendency to be impressed by such high-level meetings. Even the often jaded, suspicious people of the USSR are not immune from this tendency.
For Bush's part, the coming summit helps him offset criticism from those who claim he has been too timid or cautious in responding to the fast-moving changes in the Soviet Union and elsewhere in Eastern Europe.
Moreover, the world in general always feels better when it sees the leaders of the world's two most powerful nations smiling, shaking hands, and keeping the lines of communication open. All things considered, the best reaction to the surprise December summit is to remain hopeful but expect little.