Secretary of State James Baker is continuing the dangerous policy of his predecessor, George Shultz, of muzzling the government's leading Soviet expert, Robert Gates, deputy national security adviser and former deputy director of the CIA.
Baker recently intervened in the White House to prevent Gates from giving a speech that the State Department thought was too pessimistic about Mikhail Gorbachev's prospects for reforming the Soviet system.The State Department feared that Gates' assessment would send a signal that the United States was writing off Gorbachev's chances and that such a signal would reduce the prospects for a more friendly relationship.
Rightly or wrongly, the State Department sees Gorbachev as a positive force and does not want to undercut him by discounting his success in advance.
This is an understandable and legitimate concern, but it carries its own dangers. If we must adopt a rosy attitude toward Gorbachev's prospects for fear of prejudicing them, we as a nation will not be prepared if he fails.
The public needs sober assessments in order to be prepared for the dire implications of Soviet economic failure. Since Gates was not offering his views as an expression of our government's policy, he should have been allowed to speak.
The American public does not yet understand the magnitude of Soviet economic failure. Recently, Pravda reported that out of 276 basic consumer goods, 243 cannot be found in shops.
Soviet economists speak openly of 40 million people in poverty and on the brink of famine. The scarcity of basic necessities has caused people to stream from the countryside into Moscow in search of food, clothing, and soap, thus worsening the scarcity in the capital and provoking proposals to ban non-residents from shopping in the city.
Gorbachev and his advisers understand the extent of this failure and are attempting to reform the economy and to change Soviet attitudes in an effort to stem it. However, progress is slow. Recently, Leonid Abalkin, deputy prime minister in charge of economic reform, said:
"The economic situation in the country has continued to deteriorate over the past 18-24 months. . . . So far we have not succeeded in halting the growth of negative developments. This applies particularly to the consumer market, the budget deficit and monetary turnover. There is growing dissatisfaction with the progress of the reform, and social tension is mounting."
If these very frank words can be expressed from the top of the Soviet government, why should a member of our government be prevented from giving us the same assessment.
Despite Gorbachev's friendly appearance, the latest word from the State Department is that the Soviet Union is continuing its vast campaign of forgeries and disinformation aimed at discrediting the United States.
We need Gates' pessimistic assessment of Soviet prospects as a counterweight to the euphoria that Gorbachev has created in the West. Like Gorbachev, Bush must appear successful, and the temptations of a cosmetic presidency are ever present. But the public has to be prepared if it all washes off in the morning.