After a lengthy recess one that started before Thanksgiving last year - Congress is going back in session Tuesday. As always, there are crucial problems to be addressed, but the year promises to be especially volatile. Budget realities are beginning to make themselves felt.
President Bush, bolstered by a high public approval rating and basking in the success of the Panama invasion, will not be hesitant in asking what he wants from Congress. But while the president and Congress are agreed on some issues, such as clean-air legislation, day care and crime, there are points of potential conflict.Because 1990 is an election year, Congress is expected to be on the lookout for political advantage, even more than usual. And the president and Congress appear deeply divided over taxes, defense spending and domestic programs. Both sides continue to duck the federal deficit issue as if it were a time bomb.
Yet this may be the year when Congress may finally be forced to confront the deficit, partly because of efforts by Democrats themselves to cut Social Security taxes and quit hiding behind the Social Security surpluses that mask how bad the federal deficit really is.
Many conservatives have joined the Social Security tax cut campaign, and Bush - who is against the cut - may be faced with overwhelming opposition. The plan may succeed because it makes such good sense. The government is spending surplus Social Security funds on other things. When the money is needed in a couple of decades, it won't be there.
Yet if Democrats succeed in scoring a major political victory over Bush with the Social Security tax cut, Congress will be faced with the consequences. These include a $200 billion-plus deficit instead of $75 billion that Gramm-Rudman has set as the limit for next year.
Of course, meeting the $75 billion target, even without the Social Security tax cut, would be a farce. Congress has not met any of the Gramm-Rudman targets yet, except on paper by using what it calls "smoke and mirrors." Simply put, "smoke and mirrors" is Congress' own way of admitting that it lies and cheats about the budget.
If Congress has to confront the real budget deficit monster, without Social Security surpluses to hide behind, the sight may very well be paralyzing.
Despite this prospect, Congress wants to expand domestic programs without raising any taxes. The secret hope is that there will be a "peace dividend" from the end of the Cold War - meaning that the defense budget can be cut to produce billions of extra dollars. But budget experts say a really large dividend is unlikely.
The fighting over Social Security taxes, more domestic programs, the defense budget and Gramm-Rudman limits - all with one eye on next fall's elections - promises to be as bitter as any in a long time.
Budget truths are beginning to catch up with Congress. How senators and representatives deal with them will be enlightening. But if history is any guide, there will be - sadly - more hypocrisy and cowardice than statesmanship.