The year 2000 has always sounded strangely distant to spend much energy considering, but now that we've hit 1990 it appears to be just around the corner.
Everybody seems to be speculating on what the 21st century may have to offer, and we in the planning and building industries are no exception.Marvin J. Cetron, president of Forecasting International, makes a few such predictions for the year 2000 in his book, "American Renaissance: Life at the Turn of the Century" (St. Martin's Press).
- The body of knowledge will have doubled four times since 1988.
- Graduates will have been exposed to more information than their grandparents were in a lifetime.
- Only about 15 percent of jobs will require a college education, but nearly all will require job-specific training after high school.
- Women's salaries will have grown to within 10 percent of men's.
- Ninety percent of the labor force will work for companies employing fewer than 200 people.
- Minorities will be the majorities in 53 of the largest 100 cities.
- Children born in 2000 will live to be 81 years old on average, compared with 75 years for children born in 1986.
- Fewer than 6 percent of the work force will have assembly line jobs; the rest will have been replaced by robots.
- A decade ago, about 77 percent of jobs involved some time spent generating, processing, retrieving or distributing information; by the year 2000 that figure will be 95 percent and heavily computerized.
- Many public schools will be open 24 hours a day, retraining adults from 4 p.m. to midnight, and renting out their costly computer equipment to local businesses during the graveyard shift.
The American Institute of Architects has given its own forecast in "A Vision 2000 Report." Four trends are expected to have a particularly profound impact on our future education, planning and design:
1. The changing demographic composition of America
2. The information revolution
3. America's competitiveness in a global economy
4. Renovating built America
More specifically, some of these trends are:
- State-of-the-art schools will become community centers serving the needs of many populations. Parents will increasingly look to schools for pre-school and after-school programs and day care.
- Global growth will accelerate in the next decade, fueled by more international economic cooperation. If the United States is to be an active participant, it must become more competitive. A major factor - a willingness to make long-term investments in human capital to create an adequately educated and trained work force.
- The information revolution is already transforming the workplace, reshaping organizations, giving rise to new ways of teaching and learning. Educational facilities will replace the blackboard with the computer and will become "smart" buildings of state-of-the-art design and construction.
We will need to understand new teaching methodologies as well as new technologies to design such facilities. The psychological and behavioral effects of the high-tech classroom will assume greater significance in design.
The market gaining the most momentum for the next decade is that of rehabilitation, renovation and re-use; it will soon outstrip new construction. Over the past decade, many historic schools, particularly in urban areas, have been renovated for re-use as residential complexes and offices. Many suburban schools, faced with declining enrollments following the baby boom, have been closed and have seen some use as community and recreation centers. But neighborhood opposition to commercial uses in residential tract developments may limit the potential of this market. Because the inventory of existing buildings grows both older and larger every year, there is a built-in element of long-term growth in this market that is lacking in new construction.
A friend of mine who just made a dramatic change in his life commented on the need for one to be flexible. Those who cannot maintain elasticity will likely awaken in the 21st century to find they've been left behind.
The progress around us seems to be exponential with time. If we are able to live a full productive life, we must expect to be able to make dramatic adjustments at any given time. After all is said and done, we may find that the adventure of life was the greater reward.