Consumer inflation is likely to pick up over the next month or so, generating complaints from shoppers but barely producing a reaction of any sort from economists.
This is the reverse of how it was last year, when tense economists trained telescopes on the horizon, stepping back from time to time to issue warnings about the ogre's approach. Consumers, meanwhile, hardly worried.All in all the consumers were right. Inflation did make a thrust early in the year, accompanied by shrill warnings from the economists, but it has been diminishing since then. Somehow, consumers knew all along.
This time, however, the increase in prices will be hitting in especially sensitive areas of the marketplace, particularly at the fruit and vegetable counters, and in the monthly bill from the heating fuel supplier.
Some of the price jumps, such as 35 percent from some heating oil dealers, might remind people of the late and unlamented 1970s, when prices changed so fast that people bought in advance of need, figuring they'd save that way.
But none of this is likely to excite forecasters, the very ones who raised the alarm in 1989. It isn't systemic this time, they explain, meaning that the cause lies in isolated, temporary factors rather than a faulty economy.
Still, that economic assumption might not be as sound as it seems, relying as it does on still another forecast, this one of meteorological conditions.
Weather over the years has demonstrated that it presents forecasting problems equal or worse than those encountered in economics. Nevertheless, the relative calmness of economists is based on a quick return to normal weather.
Winter came early, savagely and relentlessly to much of the northern tier of the United States, and thrust cold waves deep into the South.
In the North, and in much of the South too, it meant higher fuel usage, the threat of shortages and higher prices. Making matters worse, it forced some refineries to close. Farther south it destroyed vegetable and fruit crops.
Economists now assume the severe weather factor will abate, although like so many of their assumptions - about politics, for example - they have very little expertise in the area. Regardless, they say, winter ends in three months.
Meanwhile, there could be an economic effect of an opposite sort.
Because of added costs in the food and fuel areas, millions of consumers might have less to spend on other goods and services. That could lead to lower prices for some items, enough even to offset the food and fuel inflation.
Moreover, if the cold weather continues it could further reduce demand by making it too uncomfortable to look for cars and houses.
Thus, those higher food and fuel prices that will have people grumbling over the next few weeks aren't likely to bother the professional inflation watchers.
As they see it, those higher prices are isolated and temporary. Why, they say, it is even possible they could help lower inflation.