Countdown time: Mikhail Gorbachev hits Washington in a few days, and it's worth mentioning that this is the big test of George Bush's presidency.
In domestic affairs, his term has been a total wash so far. Not only has he solved none of the nation's problems, he hasn't even tried. But all will be forgiven if he winds up the Cold War successfully.James Baker, the secretary of state, is back from Moscow, having worked out some of the last details of an arms control agreement that will be approved during the summit. It is important, still, that the two superpowers are going to agree to cut their nuclear arsenals by a third and abolish chemical weapons.
But that's no longer the heart of the matter. Indeed, it is a sign of the dramatic prog-ress of recent months that arms control is no longer a hot issue. It was the center of U.S.-USSR relations for nearly 30 years: it's still important, but secondary.
What's important is, first, the future of Europe and second the future of the Soviet Union. At the moment, it looks as though Europe is destined for a splendid future, and it's not at all sure that the Soviet Union will have any future at all.
These are both matters of concern to the United States. The two Germanys will become one July 1. That's when West Germany takes over the East German economy. The rest is detail. There will be all-German elections in November and the new government will then move back to Berlin.
And what about the USSR? What do you do when the second most powerful nation in the world disintegrates, a country with 25,000 nuclear warheads, 50,000 tanks and enough miscellaneous firepower to obliterate a good part of the globe? It's obvious: If the current government is friendly and cooperative, you do everything possible to help it survive.
Gorbachev is the best imaginable Soviet leader. Make no mistake: whoever replaced him would be worse, much worse. For one thing, if Gorby goes, there goes the union.
Consider what he has achieved: he has restored the independence of East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. All these countries have suffered under a monstrous, incompetent, vicious tyranny for the past 45 years. Now three of them (the first three) have fully functioning democratic governments, battling with all the usual democratic problems in the usual democratic manner. The others have a way to go but are free to advance under their own steam.
Another challenge for Bush is how to ease the Baltics out of the Soviet Union painlessly.
I think I'd bet on Bush. I wouldn't bet on Gorby. This may be his last hurrah. When he goes, it will be the way of the East European leaders, swept away by the winds of history.