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NEXT ECONOMIC BOOM IS LIKELY TO BE GLOBAL

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"There is fascination for many in the idea of owning and running a small business. It is easy to cast aside doubts aroused by reading the statistics of business failures . . . Shall I go into business for myself or work for someone else? If I decide to go into business for myself, what type of business shall I operate, and how, when and where shall I make the start?" So begins the book titled "How to Start Your Own Business." The book covers very relevant data such as capital budgeting, marketing, record keeping and government regulation.

This book was written for the post- World War II entrepreneur. It was copyrighted in 1945 by W.F. Shaw and E.W. Kay. The advice it gave launched many successful businessmen and women into one of the most significant economic expansions the world has ever seen. The book made this prophetic observation, "It is freely predicted that a million men and women now in our armed forces, and at least half as many dislocated war workers, and others, too, who have accumulated savings have decided to marshal their resources, personal and financial and invest them in small businesses. . . . They are guided by assurances that in the years just ahead, thousands of products will be within reach of millions of pocketbooks . . . "The authors' optimistic vision for new business opportunities turned out to be understated. In 1945, the U.S. gross national product was $213 billion; today our GNP exceeds $4.5 trillion, representing a 20-fold increase. Many a would-be entrepreneur has reflected on the past history and reminisced about missed chances and "if only I would have" opportunities.

For those feeling they missed out, take heart. In the recently published book "Megatrends 2000," John Naisbitt and Patricia Aburdene predict that the United States is poised again for another economic boom, and this time it will be global.

Predictions in "Megatrends 2000" of a global economic boom are based upon the following:

- Economic considerations transcending political considerations.

The world has evolved from self-sufficient villages, city-states and nation-states into a world of interdependent economies - a world-state in which all economies rise and fall together.

- The movement toward world free trade.

The world is progressing toward a one-marketplace economy in which all nations will exchange goods and services without protectionism barriers through the establishment of enlarging free-trade agreements, i.e., the 1988 U.S. and Canada free trade agreement and the 1992 European Economic Community accord.

- The powerful drive of telecommunications.

We are moving toward a single worldwide communication network with the capability to communicate anything to anyone, anywhere, by any form - voice, data, text or image - at the speed of light.

- The relative abundance of natural resources.

The world has always had an abundance of natural resources. But political and distribution problems have caused the regional shortages and famines. As the world learns improved methods of resource utilization through cooperation and technology development, natural resources supply will not be inhibiting to economic growth within the near future.

- Competition for reduced taxes.

The trend in national taxation throughout the economies of the world is down.

- The downsizing of economic output.

R. Kent Moon is a senior vice president of Zions First National Bank and is the head of the Small Business and Entrepreneurial Department.