Economic reprisals against Iraq are piling up as Europe and Japan join the U.S. boycott of Iraqi oil. But for international pressure to defeat the invasion of Kuwait, two Middle Eastern neighbors may have to take an even tougher step.
Turkey and Saudi Arabia would have to choke off the oil pipelines.More than half of Iraq's daily export of 3.14 million barrels pours through two pipelines, one through Saudi Arabia and the other through Turkey. The rest is shipped in tankers through the Straits of Hormuz, which have become difficult to traverse because of wreckage and mines left over from the Iran-Iraq war.
Despite subtle pressure from President Bush, neither Saudi Arabia nor Turkey has been willing - so far - to incur the wrath of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein by taking such a dramatic step. With Iraqi forces massed menacingly along its border, Saudi Arabia seems particularly vulnerable.
Many experts believe the current embargo will be difficult to sustain. Without oil from Iraq and Kuwait, prices will rise and economic growth will drop - distasteful scenarios in any of the Western democracies.
"Saddam Hussein did not make his decision lightly," said James Schlesinger, a former defense and energy secretary and CIA director. "Because he has decided to accept the diplomatic flak . . . it will be hard to bluff him out of his booty."
International navies could mount a sea blockade at the southern tip of the Straits of Hormuz. But to be fully effective such a move would have to be carried out jointly with a disruption of the land pipelines.
Hussein, his economy in tatters from a ravaging eight-year war with Iran, is vulnerable. He launched the invasion of Kuwait after failing to pressure that country into reducing oil production so world oil prices would rise and fill Iraq's coffers.
Hussein faces 45 percent inflation, food shortages and a lack of cash for badly needed reconstruction. Despite massive oil reserves, debt-ridden Iraq has had trouble getting loans.
But Hussein, by all accounts a clever man, probably figured the potential gain from taking over Kuwait's bountiful oil fields and rich treasury was worth the risk. He knows a successful oil embargo against Iraq could backfire by punishing Western motorists with higher gasoline prices, Schlesinger says.
Barely a day into the U.S. sanctions, prices at many gas stations went up several cents despite the fact that little U.S. oil comes from Iraq and that oil storage facilities here are full to overflowing.
Price hikes are unlikely to sit well with Americans.
"We're back to driving big cars again," said Sen. John Glenn, D-Ohio. "Will the American public make a long-term commitment to seeing that those oil lanes remain open from the Mideast? That's something we've never done."
Finally, there are many who believe Hussein - a military man - understands only one language. Sanctions, said Kuwaiti Ambassador Saud Nassir al-Sabah, "take months and months to have any effective return . . . to deal with this man and with his regimes, he can only understand force."
*****
(Additional information)
Iraq warns Turks
Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Taha Yassin Ramadan has traveled to Ankara, Turkey, and warned the government not to cut off an Iraqi oil pipeline running through Turkey that carries more than half the country's production.
Iraq told Turkey that embargoes against Iraqi oil Monday forced it to close one pipeline and would use only 70 percent of the capacity of a second pipeline, the Anatolia news agency reported.
Iraq also exports oil through Saudi Arabia pipelines, with the rest shipped via the Persian Gulf, all three highly vulnerable.