President Bush's handling of the Iraq-Kuwait conflict is being carefully watched for more reasons than the immediate crisis, analysts said, noting that the outcome may set a tone for how the world deals with problems in the post-Cold War era.
"This is an enormous opportunity for the international community," said Donald McHenry, ambassador to the United Nations under President Carter who now is a foreign policy professor at Georgetown University."Iraq, it seems to me, is not going to stop here if it can get away with this step. Sooner or later it will get Saudi Arabia and it will get Israel," McHenry said. "This is an opportunity for the international community to stand together for once."
That strategy of showing a unified front was bolstered Monday at the United Nations where the Security Council took the rare step of voting unanimously to impose a worldwide economic and military embargo on Iraq. The sanctions had been pushed by Bush.
"I cannot remember a time when we had the world so strongly together," British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said as she met with Bush at the White House.
"This is the moment for the West to show cohesion, determination and to make it clear what cannot be accepted in this world and to safeguard its own security interests," added NATO Secretary General Manfred Woerner, also at the White House.
Thus far, the firm and deliberate diplomacy used by Bush has generally won him high marks. Several foreign policy experts theorized Monday that the president's careful steps may also help him build a large reservoir of support that will be useful if events worsen.
They add that a confluence of other factors - such as the mid-summer timing of the crisis and the president's already-high approval ratings - are also playing in Bush's favor. But they caution that may not last if the crisis deepens dramatically and drags on.
"It's very early on in this thing," noted Stephen Hess, a governmental studies expert at the Brookings Institution. "Importantly, something has not yet happened - no Americans are involved. The minute that happens in one way or another, the equation changes and it becomes our crisis. At the moment it's somebody else's crisis."
So far, Bush has tried to bring together other nations in a united policy against what he has termed Iraq's "naked aggression" and has been helped enormously in that task by the changed nature of the U.S.-Soviet relationship.
Rather than fearing that any steps in the Middle East will escalate tensions with the Soviet Union, Bush has been able to secure cooperation from Moscow - a not insignificant development.
"This is the first of the post-Cold War crises," McHenry said. "It has always been clear that if you could get the Cold War out of a crisis, at least the handling will not be made more difficult.
"Here the Soviets and the Chinese both understand that it is necessary to stop that kind of aggression," he said.
Hess argued that while Bush has had some luck with a changed world situation, the president's decision to back Mikhail Gorbachev and his personal diplomacy with the Soviet leader contributed to his ability to deal with Moscow in this matter.
"After all, he (Bush) is in part responsible for that attitude. It wasn't by any means a given when he threw his chips in with Gorbachev," Hess said. "This is one immediate benefit."
But several analysts also added that the Iraq-Kuwait crisis may not be a perfect model for future problems because it was relatively clear cut and Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was identified so clearly as a villian.
"By and large this is an adversary that is hardly well liked in the United States," Hess said.