It looks more and more as if any kind of Soviet union is obsolete. That includes the loose confederation of sovereign republics envisioned by Mikhail Gorbachev.
This is the case in spite of an economic treaty signing last week in Moscow during which Gorbachev acted as master of ceremonies and proclaimed optimistically, "The ice is broken."The three-year treaty calls for an economic community similar to the European Common Market, banning tariffs and customs walls.
Eight participating republics agreed to a single monetary system based on the ruble and a single banking system. They also pledged a coordinated tax and pricing policy.
All of this makes logical sense in view of the economic crisis now afflicting the Soviets, one that portends a winter of severe hardship for the country's 287 million people.
Food and fuel reserves are down, and the republics are seriously unprepared for the hardships ahead. In fact, near panic is setting in among many officials and legislators.
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Edward Madigan said that the Soviets need about $10 billion in aid this year to meet needs for food and for animal feed grains.
In spite of this urgent need, four republics that initialed the treaty only two weeks ago refused to sign it, including the Ukraine, whose 52 million people and fertile plains make it the second-largest and second-richest of the Soviet republics.
The three others that did not sign were Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldavia. Another three republics, the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, were recognized as independent states by Moscow last month.
It may be that some of the hold-outs will eventually sign the treaty, but even if they do, several of them, as well as some of those who have already signed, have declared that they have no intention of signing any political agreements.
Since Gorbachev intends the economic treaty to be a first step toward a political agreement, the Soviet future looks uncertain, tenuous and even bleak.