In a stunning move, three of the Soviet Union's biggest republics joined hands this week in a new relationship known for the moment as a "commonwealth of independent states." With one stroke, they declared that the old Soviet Union had ceased to exist, that the Kremlin-based national government was irrelevant and that the new capital would be Minsk instead of Moscow.
Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, who has been struggling to put together a federation of sovereign states from among the eight or nine major republics of the disintegrating country, saw his efforts collapse in shambles. It was a shock to Gorbachev, who reportedly never even had a hint of what was coming.The three republics in the new commonwealth are the biggest and most powerful of the original 15 states in the Soviet Union. Between Ukraine, Byelorussia - where Minsk is located - and the vast Russian Federation, they contain more than 70 percent of the country's population and most of its vital resources.
The biggest and most troubling question becomes: What happens now? Several things are apparent.
- Gorbachev, who already had been the rumored object of another possible coup attempt, appears to have been left without much of a power base. He reportedly has been offered a job as "president" of the commonwealth - a post with no real power or influence.
- Despite Gorbachev being essentially pushed aside, serious action by the military remains a possibility. Powerful generals - seeing the disintegration of the country - might be in even more of a hurry to try and hold the pieces together, although that could lead to civil war, a sort of Yugoslavia with nuclear weapons. Gorbachev has warned of such a scenario.
The Soviet president is fighting back. Gorbachev says - and he may be right in a technical sense - that the trio of Slavic states do not have the right to decide the fate of the entire nation. He has called for a convocation of the Congress of Peoples Deputies and possibly a national referendum to preserve the Soviet Union.
Oddly enough, if the military decides to act, it could back Gorbachev, the very leader the generals may have been plotting against.
- Immediate steps need to be taken to bring thousands of scattered nuclear weapons under civilian control. The leaders of the commonwealth say they will observe all treaties. Moreover, they will seek to liquidate all nuclear armaments and have complete disarmament under international controls. That is heartening - and something to work toward.
- Creation of a commonwealth by three major republics is merely a political step that does nothing to solve the enormous economic and practical functions of a country rapidly falling apart. The country is a cauldron of other troubles, and famine may be a real possibility this winter.
Petroleum production is declining rapidly in the richest Soviet oil fields. Trucks are finding it hard to obtain fuel. Coupled with a collapsing transportation system and an abrupt industrial decline, the problems are just beginning.
Having a commonwealth doesn't help the rest of the original Soviet states. Although the leaders of the movement have left the door open for others to join, how will those rich republics deal with the have-nots, the outsiders?
The rapid-fire changes in the past 18 months have an ominous sense about them, almost as if they were some kind of time-bomb ticking away. Only one thing seems certain: The people in that vast land are in for hard times.