Hopes were high 20 years ago when the 26th Amendment to the Constitution enfranchised American citizens age 18 to 20. Politicians from both parties and every part of the ideological spectrum were enthusiastic.
The sequel has been something of an anticlimax. The miserably low turnout at the polls of 18- to 20-year-olds has disappointed all the bright hopes. In 1988 a mere 26 percent of all citizens age 18 to 20 voted, less than half the turnout of older Americans.In this 20th anniversary year, explanations of the low turnout are commonplace - and incomplete. Journalists and politicians say that young adults do not vote because so few of them care about the issues, candidates or campaigns. There is something in this, but it is far from the whole story.
Many older people also are bored by politics. The same study that pinpoints the dismal voting performance of young people discloses that, compared to all Americans, they were only fractionally less interested in the 1988 presidential campaign or concerned about who would win. When it comes to motivation, America's young people are not all that different from everyone else.
What most distinguishes young people is not their lack of political interest but the frequency with which they change their address. Even in our nation of movers, their residential mobility is exceptional.
The Census Bureau reports that in the mid-1980s, 29 percent of all 20-year-olds had changed residence at least once in a year's time. We can assume that more than half of this age group moves between a presidential election and the following midterm election.
The connection between moving and voting is so elementary that it is often overlooked. No one can vote without being registered, and people who move must register all over again at their new address. This is not a difficult task, but it must be done.
Registering to vote is not a high-priority item for people settling into a new home, nor do many people know just how to go about it. In most states it must be done a month before election day, before the excitement of the campaign reaches its peak.
In view of these simple facts, it is not surprising that people of any age who have recently moved are unlikely to vote. The largest light-voting group in the country is not minorities or the poor or even the under-30 crowd: It is citizens who have lived in their current residence for no more than two years.
When young people are registered, they vote. The turnout of the registered in recent presidential elections has been about 85 percent for people of all ages. Turnout is so low because so many Americans are not registered.
Once it is understood that the vast majority of those who are registered to vote actually do so and that changing addresses requires a new registration, one remedy for low turnout is obvious: Link registration to things that people usually do when they move, particularly contacts with a government agency. The post office and state departments of motor vehicles are the two most promising places.
Every year the Postal Service receives about 40 million change-of-address notices from people who want their mail forwarded. This information is now recorded on a computer and sold to a variety of users, including political parties.
Departments of motor vehicles usually ask to be notified when holders of drivers' licenses move. Doubtless a great many drivers fail to do so, but the notification occurs anyway when their licenses or automobile registrations are renewed.
Local election officials could use such information to keep movers eligible to vote by transferring their registration from the old to the new address. This would have the added advantage of immediately eliminating the old-address registration.
In 1990, a bill that required states to use motor-vehicle information and pushed them toward use of the Postal Service's computer data passed the House of Representatives with the support of almost all Democrats and a third of Republicans, including several members of the House Republican leadership. This promising step toward reform died last September when a Republican filibuster prevented the Senate from considering it.
History is repeating itself this year. On July 19, Republicans again succeeded in keeping the Senate from considering the National Voter Registration Act (S.250). The outcome was decided by one vote.
The Democratic leaders may make another attempt to bring S.250 to the floor, but they probably will not do so without public pressure, which has not been a factor so far.
(Raymond E. Wolfinger is a professor of political science at the University of California, Berkeley. He is co-author of "Who Votes?")