Salt Lake Mayor Palmer DePaulis and U.S. Rep. Jim Hansen have early leads in next year's governor's race, the latest Deseret News/KSL-TV poll shows.
But with the election still a year away, many Utahns have no favorites yet.Pollster Dan Jones & Associates determined in a new survey that DePaulis, a Democrat who has already said he's running next year for governor, has 26 percent support among all Utahns, while Hansen, a Republican who hasn't said which race he'll enter in 1992, gets 17 percent support.
Other candidates, Democrats and Republicans, fall well back in the pack, Jones found. Such early polls mainly reflect name identification and citizens' favorable impressions of the potential candidates.
The late Gov. Scott M. Matheson and current Gov. Norm Bangerter scored low in early polls, but went on to win their party primaries and the governorship.
Since Bangerter has already announced his political retirement, it's an open race next year. In weighing their political options, most prospective candidates for governor are wondering how well they would fare in their party's convention and in the subsequent primary election. Last on their list of worries is the general election.
With such a wide and strong field of candidates, it's unlikely any one can get 70 percent delegate support in his party's state convention - the amount needed for immediate nomination. Two candidates will probably emerge from each convention and meet in a primary.
All registered voters can vote in a party primary (they must chose between the Republican or Democratic primaries, however), making intraparty battles critical.
Jones found that in a GOP primary, Hansen has 28 percent support, Lt. Gov. Val Oveson has 14 percent; lecturer/writer Richard Eyre has 7 percent; port, Salt Lake County Commissioner Mike Stewart has 6 percent; and insurance executive Michael Leavitt has 2 percent. Five percent mentioned someone else and 38 percent didn't know whom they'd support in a GOP primary.
In a Democratic primary, DePaulis has 46 percent support, local businessman and 1984 gubernatorial candidate Kem Gardner has 10 percent and former judge Stewart Hanson Jr. has 7 percent. Three percent mentioned someone else and 35 percent didn't know who they'd vote for in a Democratic gubernatorial primary, Jones found.
Jones then listed all the candidates together, including Merrill Cook, who ran as an independent in 1988.
DePaulis and Hansen lead, followed by Oveson with 8 percent, Cook with 5 percent and the rest of the field falling behind them. Thirty percent have no preference now, Jones found.
The pecking order of candidates didn't change when Jones asked Republicans which GOP candidates they prefer, or when he asked Democrats which Democratic candidates they prefer. One number of interest, however: DePaulis gets 12 percent support from those who say they're Republicans. None of the Republicans fare that well among the Democrats, Jones found.
Here's where those on the poll stand concerning their candidacy:
Democrats - DePaulis says he's in the race. Gardner says he's leaning toward running as well, but won't announce his intentions until October. Hanson says, "I'm an unannounced candidate, meaning I think it's pretty likely I'll do it."
Republicans - Hansen will decide in several months whether he runs for governor or seeks re-election to his 1st District U.S. House seat. Those close to Hansen say he's leaning toward running for the U.S. House again. Oveson is in the race. Eyre is leaning toward running; he's sent out letters to leading Republicans asking them not to support any gubernatorial candidate until he announces his decision later this year. Leavitt is running, although an announcement of a campaign committee won't come immediately. Stewart is leaning toward running, although no announcement has come, either.
Independent - Cook says he's leaning toward running under the banner of the Independent Party of Utah. He's decided against returning to the Republican Party, an option he considered earlier this year.
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(Poll)
If the Republican primary election for governor were held today, which of the following candidates would you favor...
Richard Eyre------------7%
Jim Hansen------------ 28%
Michael Leavitt--------2%
Val Oveson-------------14%
Mike Stewart------------6%
Other-------------------5%
Don't know-------------38%
If the Democratic primary election for governor were held today, and the candidates were Palmer DePaulis, Kem Gardner and Stewart Hanson Jr. for whom would you vote?
Palmer DePaulis--------46%
Kem Gardner------------10%
Stewart Hanson Jr.------7%
Other-------------------3%
Don't Know------------35%
If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?
Merrill Cook(Ind.)----------------5%
Palmer DePaulis (D)--------------26%
Richard Eyre (R)------------------4%
Kem Gardner (D)-------------------4%
Jim Hansen (R)--------------------17%
Stewart Hanson Jr. (D)-------------2%
Michael Leavitt (R)----------------1%
Val Oveson (R)---------------------8%
Mike Stewart (R)-------------------2%
Other------------------------------1%
Don't know------------------------30%