With the demise of Russian communism and the day-to-day changes in the Soviet Union, there is another fascinating question. What impact will all of this have on Fidel Castro and Cuba's communist system - one that has been quite different from that of the Soviets?
It was the late 1950s when the bearded, charismatic lawyer named Castro led a group of rebels who were depicted as selfless Robin Hoods who wanted to provide their countrymen with liberty and justice.Most of the Cuban middle class were fed up with the repressive regime of dictator Fulgencio Batista, and they supported the new movement. In the last few weeks of 1958, the ascetic Castro, whose chief indulgence was a 50-cent Montecristo cigar, took control of Cuba.
"Power does not interest me, and I will not take it," he said. "From now on the people are entirely free."
In the next several months he restored Cuba's pride, rooted out corruption and began many vast programs to educate the country's children. When rumors surfaced that Castro was communist, most didn't believe it.
He exuded a unique charm with American leaders despite his grimy
green field jacket. But after meeting with him for three hours, Vice President Richard Nixon concluded that he was "either incredibly naive about communism or under communist discipline."
By the summer of 1959, it became evident that Nixon was right. Castro exhibited exceptional ruthlessness, suspending habeas corpus, establishing military tribunals all over the island, ordering an end to the right of convicted defendants to appeal their sentences. Then he recognized Red China and called the United States a "vulture feeding on humanity."
At first American leaders were convinced that Castro was an aberration who would not last. In 1963, John F. Kennedy predicted that Castro would not be in power in five years. So much hostility built up between Cuba and the United States that there were as many as eight different unsuccessful attempts by the CIA to have Castro assassinated.
Yet more than 30 years later, at the age of 65, he is still at the helm.
I asked Dr. Edward Epstein, a political science professor and Latin American expert at the University of Utah, to comment on Castro's stability in the wake of the Soviet upheaval. He said, "The Cuban economy will be hurt severely with the end of subsidies from the Soviet Union."
Soviets have benefited from Cuban sugar while Castro has depended heavily on Soviet petroleum, and it has already been sharply cut. Epstein says the communist system in Cuba has had "clearly important accomplishments, and most observers think Castro has enjoyed considerable support from the population. As the economy worsens, it will be interesting to see what effect that will have on his popularity."
That, says Epstein, is where his own crystal ball ends.
But he notes important differences between the Cuban and Soviet systems. Cuba has had measurable success, notably in health care and education.
"The life expectancy in Cuba is 73 or 74, the highest in Latin America and comparable to the Western industrial countries. They have also become specialized in vaccines for sale abroad. Cuba has the best-educated population in Latin America. There is virtual total literacy. Many attend the primary grades and most attend high school, and that is not common in Latin America."
On the negative side, Epstein says that "housing in the Castro period has been at a premium. There have been shortages despite government programs. Consumer goods are in short supply - TVs, refrigerators, washing machines. Although the average Cuban eats reasonably well, the diet is typically boring - repetitious. If one wants to eat luxury goods it is difficult."
Epstein declares that "the biggest accomplishment of the Cuban revolution is its tremendous amount of equality." Nevertheless, Cuba's material life is not up to the European level. "The standard of living is modest and is likely to fall." As to the future, "Castro will be an old man in 10 years under the best of circumstances, but over half the Cuban population have never known anything different."
Castro said last week "The Cuban revolution will resist." Only time will tell.