Even though the national economy continues to struggle, Utah's state finances remain reasonably bright, according to the Utah Foundation, a non-profit research organization.
In a recent report, the foundation noted that Utah is one of only nine states nationwide able to meet state needs without reducing budgets, laying off employees or raising taxes."This enviable position is possible because of Utah's relatively strong economy and because of the budget discipline practiced in past years by the governor and Legislature," the report concludes.
Still, the foundation warns, lawmakers should approach Gov. Norm Bangerter's $3.8 billion budget cautiously because it assumes a 7.2 percent increase in total personal income for 1992.
"If the national economy does not improve, Utah's economy may not realize the assumed level of growth underlying the governor's proposal," the foundation states.
Utah has ended each budget year with a surplus since 1988. The surplus for the budget year that ended June 30, 1991, was just over $34 million, about 1 percent of the $3.44 billion budget.
The state operating portion of the budget that the governor will submit to the Legislature later this month represents a 4.9 percent increase over the amount that will be spent during the current budget year.
Eighty percent of the operations budget goes toward funding public education, health, higher education and human services programs. The total operations budget is about $3.4 billion.
The 4.9 percent increase would be the smallest such increase in four years, a reflection of the impact of the national recession on Utah's economy, according to the foundation.
Analysts for the foundation have tracked a slowdown in job growth in the state. During a 12-month period ending in August 1990, job growth was 4.8 percent, steadily slowing to about 2.5 percent by the end of 1991.
Besides the national recession, the foundation report says state revenues could be affected by an increase or decrease in inflation rates; major changes in international economic markets, such as the price of oil; significant defense cuts; or any change in state tax rates or revenue structure.
Although the state has a so-called rainy day fund to deal with declining revenue or other unforeseen budget problems, the foundation notes the $56.7 million fund amounts to only 1.5 percent of the current budget.