"Seven of our top 10 stock market timers remain bullish," says Timer Digest (P.O. Box 1688, Greenwich, CT 06836), "while only two are bearish and one is neutral." Summing up the optimists' case is James Stack of InvesTech Market Analyst (2472 Birch Glen, Whitefish, MT 59937). "The Federal Reserve remains in an easing mode and has room to ease further if desired. There is enough strength in our technical indicators to make us want to maintain our current positions."
- "Buying the five lowest-priced issues among the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow Jones industrial average has produced 21 percent average annual gains over the past 17 years vs. just 11 percent for the Dow as a whole," observes Smart Money (6 Deer Trial, Old Tappan, NJ 07675). The system worked again in 1991, producing a 53 percent gain, compared with the Dow's 20 percent run-up. Going into 1992, the five lowest-priced among the 10 highest-yielding Dow stocks were: American Express, Eastman Kodak, General Motors, Union Carbide and Woolworth.- The New England economy will bottom out sometime in 1992, predicts Gerard Cassidy of Tucker Anthony, who was an early prophet of hard times for the region. Cassidy would play this recovery through the stocks of some of the better small savings banks in the area. Five that he favors still pay dividends and sell for less than half their stated book value: Cheshire Financial, Eastern Bancorp, Grove Bank, Lexington Savings Bancshares and West Newton Savings Bank.
- To see if there was any real value left in this high-flying stock market, Standard & Poor's Outlook (25 Broadway, New York, NY 10004) recently went looking for solid stocks selling well below the market's multiple. It found six stocks that carry its five-star (highest) investment rating yet still sell for less than 10 times projected 1992 earnings: Federal Paper Board, Hanson PLC, NCNB, Phelps Dodge, Pittston, Sears.
- Buying closed-end funds at discounts to their net asset value reduces risk, observes The Scott Letter (Box 17800, Richmond, VA 23226). "There's always a reason for discounts; the worst-performing funds usually have the steepest. But there are sometimes exceptions which create value for the cautious investor." Scott recently listed 26 closed-ends selling for substantial discounts. It rated only five outright "buys": Future Germany Fund, Quest for Value, Mexico Equity & Income, Mexico Fund, New Germany Fund.
- "It may be too late to get into long government bonds for capital appreciation purposes," says Robert Goodman, senior economic adviser for Putnam. "Treasuries have only limited capital appreciation potential. However, if your objective is income, it's not too late. When you have 7.50 percent Treasuries and only 3 percent inflation, you can get even greater real income than you could in the early 1980s, when Treasuries yielded 15 percent but inflation was 13 per-cent."
- The safest money funds are now also the best yielding, says Donoghue's Moneyletter (Box 8008, Holliston, MA 01746). "The best of the government-only money funds offer a 100 percent exemption from state and local taxes, which is worth up to 80 to 95 basis points in yield advantage. You end up with money funds having higher taxable-equivalent yields than hundreds of funds clearly taking greater risks for lower after-tax returns."
Investor's Notebook is a digest of investment opinion from the world's leading financial advisers. It does not recommend any specific investments, and no endorsement is implied or should be inferred. For more information, contact the individual firms cited.