Though President Clinton's economic ideas have drawn a lot of fire from Wall Street, his plan could well be a boon to the business of banks, brokers and other financial-services industries.
In the eyes of some of his critics on the Street, Clinton has presented himself as a Robin Hood intent on redistributing wealth according to a system of "fairness" that is open to dispute.At the same time, however, observers say there is a very real prospect that his proposals could lead to greater demand for a wide variety of Wall Street's merchandise, from municipal bonds to individual retirement accounts.
"Everyone's got a bellyache about Clinton's proposal," observed Ethan Siegel, a Washington analyst at Prudential Securities.
"While the market mulls over the proposal and its likely impact on the economy, I'd point out that there are pluses in the package that cannot be ignored.
"The overall message remains that there is going to be less Washington money for high-income retirees - in both pension and health-care benefits. As more and more people find it necessary to provide for their own retirements, this will be a plus for the mutual funds, the financial planners and the banks."
Analysts like Siegel raise these visions at a time when expectations for financial businesses are already on the rise.
As of late last week, Standard & Poor's index of financial stocks sported a 23.31 percent gain over the past 12 months.
That stood in sharp contrast to an advance of just 3.08 percent for S&P's index of industrial stocks, and a 6.88 percent rise overall for S&P's 500-stock composite index.
The financial group's performance reflects the fact that financial firms of many types have been recovering from the early-1990s credit crunch, and reviving their profitability, with help from falling interest rates.
As many analysts see it, these businesses also stand to benefit from demographic forces as the nation's population ages in the years ahead, dramatically increasing the size of the over-40 set. This is the group that has always provided many of Wall Street's best customers.
Richard Hoffman, chief investment strategist at Cowen & Co., cites as a primary market theme of the '90s "anything that 40-year-olds and above buy and use."
Clinton's proposals already have touched off a boom in the tax-exempt municipal bond business, based on the likelihood of higher tax brackets for upper-income individuals and couples.
By the same reasoning, people's appetites would stand to be whetted as well for annuities, life insurance, and retirement savings vehicles like IRAs, Keogh plans and employer-sponsored 401 plans - all of which offer some degree of shelter from taxes.
Siegel says ripple effects will likely reach other investment markets as well. "The Clinton proposal should be good for the real estate market with its easing of the passive loss rules, its easing of the rules that govern pension fund investment in commercial and debt-financed real estate, and its easing of the oversight regarding bank lending policies."