The next four to six weeks will be critical in determining if the spring runoff in Davis County will flow smoothly into the Great Salt Lake or unleash a deluge of debris and flooding.
Public Works Director Sid Smith said at this point it's too early to predict the course of the runoff, but he's confident that $20 million worth of flood control work done over the past decade will handle the flows.It's not how much snow is in the mountains so much as how it comes off, Smith said.
A gradual warming pattern over the next month or so to bring the snow down gradually is the ideal pattern, Smith said. This year's snowpack in the county is comparable to that of 1984, which came down smoothly.
Continued cold weather and more snow accumulation followed by high temperatures is the worst-cse scenario, a repeat of 1983. That year saw mudslides, debris flows and sandbagged rivers running down city streets.
It was after the 1983 disaster that the county spent nearly $20 million on debris basins, holding ponds and channeling projects. Some $13 million came from a county bond issue and $7 million from state funds, Smith said.
"The snowpack is big, not a record, but comparable to 1984, which came off with no problems," Smith said. "The snow depth really isn't the factor. It's temperature and the area it covers that are the factors.
"This time of year, you don't really get much runoff. The temperatures are still pretty cool and it's 10 to 20 degrees cooler in the mountains," said Smith.
County crews have been cleaning debris from channels and working on potential trouble spots, Smith said. And he's reviewed the county's supply of sandbags.
"We still have a pretty good supply of sandbags left over from '84," said Smith. "We haven't started filling them yet, and we have a list of suppliers and cost figures if we need more. We're ready."