If there'll ever be a race where your vote counts, it's in Utah's 2nd Congressional District this year - Democratic incumbent Karen Shep-herd and Republican Enid Greene Waldholtz are in a statistical dead heat going into Tuesday's election, the latest Deseret News/KSL poll shows.
Pollster Dan Jones & Associates found in a poll completed Thursday that Shepherd is favored by 37 percent of district registered voters, Waldholtz favored by 37 percent and Independent Merrill Cook favored by 20 percent. Only 6 percent didn't know, Jones found. He polled 404 registered voters over three days, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. The 2nd District survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.Among those who said they had high interest in the race, Waldholtz moves ahead of Shepherd a bit, but still within the 5 percent margin of error.
Jones found that Cook gets 15 percent of Republicans' votes while only getting 11 percent of Democrats'. Thus, says Jones, Cook is drawing more support away from Waldholtz than he is from Shepherd. "Some of those Republicans could go home" to Waldholtz if they believe Cook can't win, warns Jones.
"But Shepherd stayed strong throughout the week" in Jones' polling, and thus Waldholtz's momentum - touted by her campaign a week ago - has apparently stalled. "This race is as close as it can be, impossible to predict now," said Jones.
Actually, Jones warns that his latest poll shouldn't be used as a predictor at all. Like all surveys, it is an accurate reflection, within the margin of error, of voters' opinions last Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Much could happen over the weekend and on Monday and Election Day to push voters one way or the other, he said.
Clearly, voter turnout is critical to both Waldholtz's and Shepherd's camps.
No other race Jones surveyed is as close as the 2nd District, although voters are evenly split over whether they favor or oppose Initiative A, the term limits/runoff election ballot provision.
Jones found that 42 percent of Utahns registered to vote said if the election were today they'd vote in favor of Initiative A, 39 percent said they'd vote against and 19 percent didn't know. Across the whole state, Jones polled 1,211 voters for a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent.
Among those who said they have high interest in the election, those in favor of Initiative A drops to 40 percent and those opposed rises to 45 percent, Jones found.
Those opposing the term limits initiative have been running radio ads, but those backing the initiative have been running radio and TV spots. Unlike other recent ballot propositions, opponents have not outspent initiative backers this time around, financial disclosure statements filed last week show.
Other leading races haven't closed as much as the challengers would have liked since the newspaper and TV station last polled a month ago.
U.S. Sen. Orrin Hatch takes a huge lead over Democrat Pat Shea into election day. Jones found Hatch is favored by 67 percent of registered voters, Shea by 24 percent and Independent Craig Oliver by 2 percent. Others on the ballot didn't get 1 percent support. Only 7 percent hadn't made up their minds, Jones found.
Democrat Bobbie Coray hoped to have closed on 14-year incumbent Rep. Jim Hansen in the 1st District. But Jones found that 63 percent favor Hansen, 32 percent Coray, 1 percent mentioned someone else and 5 percent didn't know.
And Democratic Rep. Bill Orton is still running strong in the 3rd Congressional District. Orton is favored by 58 percent of registered voters, Republican Dixie Thompson gets 27 percent support, Socialist Workers Party candidate Barbara Greenway gets 3 percent and 13 percent didn't know.
Republicans can find some hope in other questions Jones posed. Asked which party on the ballot they tended to lean toward supporting, 51 percent said Republican, only 21 percent said Demo-cratic. Twenty-six percent didn't know or wouldn't pick.
Utah Democratic leaders have been running a TV ad this week warning Utahns of Republican domination in the Utah Legislature and asking them to vote Democratic. But Jones found that 50 percent of Utahns lean toward supporting Republican legislative candidates while only 20 percent lean toward supporting Democratic legislative candidates.
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ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
On the inside
- President Clinton tries to rally the electorate/A10
- Salt Lake County Democrats favored in commission races/B1
- A complete guide to Tuesday's election/B1, B4-8, V1
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Deseret News/KSL poll
If the election were held today, how would you vote?
SENATE
Orrin Hatch (R) 67%
Pat Shea (D) 24%
Don't know/other 9%
1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Jim Hansen (R) 63%
Bobbie Coray (D) 32%
Don't know/other 6%
2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Karen Shepherd (D) 37%
Enid Greene Waldholtz (R) 37%
Merrill Cook (I) 20%
Don't know 6%
3RD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Bill Orton (D) 58%
Dixie Thompson (R) 27%
Don't know/other 16%
INITIATIVE A
(Term limits and runoff elections)
For 42%
Against 39%
Don't know 19%
Poll conducted Oct. 28-Nov. 3, 1994. Margin of error +/-2.8% for total data; +/-5.0 for each congressional district on interviews of 1,211 registered voters. Conducted by Dan Jones & Associates. Copyright 1994 Deseret News