Tuesday's elections were shaping up as a mighty political backlash against Washington, the Democratic Party and President Clinton.
Despite prosperity and recent foreign policy successes on the president's watch, polls suggest that a sullen electorate goaded by nasty, negative campaign advertising will sock it to Clinton's Democrats - seen in most places as the people in charge - in voting for a new Congress and key state offices.Results will start to emerge throughout Tuesday evening, with major poll-closings staggered from 5 p.m. MST in the East to 9 p.m. MST in California.
The main stakes and the outook:
- THE SENATE: Thirty-five of 100 seats are up for renewal. The Democrats have a 56-44 majority and have controlled the chamber for all but six of the past 40 years. By coincidence, the Democrats are defending 22 of the 35 vulnerable seats, giving the Republicans wide pickings for the net shift of seven seats they need to regain a majority. The most cautious forecasts concede them at a gain of at least five.
- THE HOUSE: All 435 seats are up. Democrats now hold a 256-178 majority with one independent. Republicans need a net gain of 40 seats to regain the majority for the first time since 1954. Even Democratic-leaning analysts predict a Republican pickup of at least 25 to 30 seats.
- GOVERNORSHIPS: At stake are 36 of the 50 state governorships, key political offices that wield big influence as campaign power bases in presidential election years. The Democrats now prevail by 29 to 20 with one independent, but most polls say they will lose that majority including possibly such coveted strongholds as Texas and Florida.
If the Democrats lose the Senate, Clinton will have to barter with Republicans to get anything done and will see key committees, which control legislation, chaired by fierce foes. Examples: arch-conservative Jesse Helms of North Carolina running the Foreign Relations Committee; Alfonse D'Amato of New York, a Clinton scourge, heading the Banking Committee; and Orrin Hatch as head of the Judiciary Committee.
A loss of the House as well would add up for Clinton to a catastrophe. The new House speaker would be Newt Gingrich of Georgia, who recently characterized Democrats as "the enemy of normal people." He later called that a poor choice of words.
A loss of key governorships - such as Texas and Florida - would rob Clinton of campaign machinery key to a 1996 run.
An ABC News poll issued on election eve well summarized Clinton's dilemma: His personal popularity has inched up above 50 percent for the first time in more than a year in any poll and Democrats have pulled back even with Republicans in general voter support - but big setbacks are still in prospect.