Three weeks from today, college basketball fans around the country will be staring at a tournament grid, deciding which teams to advance through the 64-team field and on to the NCAA championship.
There are a lot of games, including the conference tournaments, to be played before March 13, a.k.a. Selection Sunday, but there's a good portion of the field hat has cemented its invitations, while others head for that precarious late-February perch: on the bubble.By looking at a team's won-loss record, schedule and RPI rating, one of the computer services used as input by the selection committee, it can be established what chances there are for a certain school to make the field without winning a conference's automatic bid.
No system exists that allows looking into the future with certainty, but if we couldn't venture guesses, educated or not, on who's in and who's not, there wouldn't be a whole lot of fun leading up to the day the bids are announced.
Armed with as many disclaimers as allowed, here's a look at the top 10 conferences according to the computer rankings and the way things are shaping up for their multiple NCAA bids:
Western Athletic Conference
Locks: New Mexico (19-5, 30 RPI); Brigham Young (18-6, 33).
Bubbles: Texas-El Paso (15-9, 49).
Nearly Burst: Fresno State (16-7, 99).
Atlantic Coast Conference
Locks: Duke, North Carolina, Maryland, Wake Forest.
Bubbles: Virginia (13-9, 25); Georgia Tech (14-9, 28).
Nearly Burst: Florida State (12-10, 89); Clemson (13-12, 91).
Atlantic 10
Locks: Massachusetts, Temple.
Bubbles: West Virginia (15-8, 26).
Nearly Burst: George Washington (13-9, 65); Duquesne (14-8, 73).
Big East
Locks: Connecticut, Syracuse, Boston College.
Bubbles: Georgetown (15-6, 56).
Nearly Burst: Villanova (12-9, 41); Pittsburgh (13-10, 42); Seton Hall (13-10, 43); Providence (12-9, 60).
Big Eight
Locks: Missouri, Oklahoma State, Kansas.
Bubbles: Kansas State (16-8, 47); Oklahoma (14-8, 23); Nebraska (14-8, 50).
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota.
Bubbles: Wisconsin (15-7, 19); Illinois (14-7, 31); Michigan State (15-10, 32).
Great Midwest
Locks: Marquette, Saint Louis, Alabama-Birmingham, Cincinnati.
Bubbles: DePaul (15-8, 44).
Metro Conference
Locks: Louisville.
Bubbles: North Carolina Charlotte (13-8, 34); Virginia Commonwealth (12-10, 36).
Nearly Burst: Virginia Tech (15-8, 87); Tulane (14-9, 88).
Pac-10
Locks: Arizona, UCLA, California.
Bubbles: Stanford (13-8, 48); Washington State (16-9, 47).
Nearly Burst: Arizona State (12-10, 55).
Southeastern Conference
Locks: Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida.
Bubbles: Mississippi State (15-7, 29); Vanderbilt (13-9, 63); Alabama (14-8, 64).
Even coaches have different ways of approaching the final weeks of the regular seasons. Dale Brown of LSU and Stu Jackson of Wisconsin had opposite reactions after their teams lost Saturday night.
Brown would not hear of any talk about the Tigers (11-11) being out of contention for the NCAA tournament.
"Laugh about it, make fun of it, write all the articles you want. We'll be back. I'm telling you: It's not done."
Wisconsin (15-7) started the season 11-0 and Badger fans felt sure this would be the season for the first NCAA bid since 1947.
"Right now I would tend to think this leaves us out of the big picture," Jackson said after the home loss to Northwestern.
The picture isn't finished until March 13, no matter what anybody says.