The British and Irish governments view the IRA's temporary cease-fire next week as an attempt to dodge their demand that it stop killing for good before it can join talks on Northern Ireland's future.
But some seasoned observers think the Irish Republican Army - long committed to the belief that only violence brings political results - has made a difficult decision that does offer hope.Cardinal Cahal Daly, leader of Ireland's 4 million Roman Catholics and a frequent IRA critic, said Friday that while many viewed the cease-fire as "bogus and cynical, I do not believe so."
"I think there are good, objective reasons for believing this is a sincere move, even though a minimal one, by the IRA," Daly said. "Why not test it?"
More than 3,100 people have died in 25 years of political-sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, where British troops have been deployed since 1969. The outlawed IRA seeks a united Ireland, but the province's majority Protestant community opposes union with the predominantly Catholic Irish Republic.
The IRA announced its cease-fire Wednesday night in Republican News, the newspaper of the IRA and its allied political party, Sinn Fein.
In the announcement, the IRA said its "unilateral initiative" not to bomb or shoot for 72 hours from midnight Tuesday reflected "willingness to be positive and flex-i-ble."
British Prime Minister John Major immediately dismissed the gesture and stood behind his Dec. 15 declaration with Irish leader Albert Reynolds, in which they offered Sinn Fein a place in talks if the IRA lays down its arms per-ma-nent-ly.
"What effectively the IRA are saying is on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday they will decide . . . not to kill people. On Friday, Saturday, Sunday they think they can go back to killing people. It is a cynical ploy," Major said during a tour Thursday of Northern Ire-land.
However, Reynolds called the cease-fire "a small step" and expressed hope it could lead to something more.
IRA violence has declined since the Dec. 15 declaration. The group has killed two people in Northern Ireland this year, both police officers. On Thursday night it struck a rural police station with a rocket and rifle fire, injuring an officer.
The cease-fire plan has two apparent aims: to put pressure on the British for direct talks or renewed communication through intermediaries, and to strain the close cooperation of the British and Irish governments.
To the IRA, the most threatening aspect of the Dec. 15 declaration is the way both governments spoke with one voice. Sinn Fein and the IRA claim to represent Irish interests. That claim is harder to maintain when the elected Irish government cooperates with the British regarding Northern Ireland.
Reynolds' softer tone in part reflects Irish willingness to do what Britain says it won't do any more - maintain discreet communication with Sinn Fein in hopes of inching it toward compromise.
"In Sinn Fein's view there should be no conditions put upon talks with our party," Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein president, told a Belfast news conference.