If you thought tracking the stock market was a task, consider the world of sports collectibles this year:
- Baseballs signed by future Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr., who recently broke the record for consecutive games played, sold for $25 three years ago. They jumped to $75 this year but will likely slide to $50 once enthusiasm subsides.- Mickey Mantle-autographed baseballs, which were selling for $100 apiece, rose to $150 when Mantle became ill earlier this year, and now, after his death, are selling for $200 to $250. Experts believe they'll eventually scale back down to $150.
- Footballs signed by record-setting running back O.J. Simpson increased in value from $75 to $200 during media hoopla surrounding his double-murder trial. Some frenzied collectors paid $400. Now that he's free, prices are coming down again.
Even among collectibles from the mightiest players, prices can fluctuate. Yet the rule of thumb is still that collectibles of true greats like baseball's Babe Ruth, basketball's Michael Jordan, football's Dan Marino and hockey's Wayne Gretzky will not only hold up but appreciate over the long haul.
Some once-heralded athletes can see the value of their collectibles plunge. Consider baseball "could-have-beens" Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry, who will be reunited next year as teammates in New York. Gooden's 1984 Fleer Update Set trading card that sold for $75 four years ago has tumbled to $15. Strawberry's 1983 Topps Traded Set card selling for $50 now goes for $14.
The message is simple: Buy what you like, with investment potential a lesser consideration. That way, you won't have your hopes and money dashed.
Rookie trading cards of players tend to be the most valuable. Don't get cards autographed, since collectors seeking to fill out their sets will be less likely to buy them because the other cards in their set aren't signed and they don't want to pay a premium.
As in the stock market, try to buy low and sell high. "The smart way to buy sports collectibles is when nobody else wants them and they're really cold in the market, since you'll find good deals," advised Joshua Evans, chairman of Leland's sports memorabilia auction house in New York. "You don't wait until Cal Ripken Jr. gets really close to the record, when everything will cost the very most."
Think carefully about what you're doing.
"I see mistakes, such as someone taking an autographed baseball with the likes of Steve Carlton, Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle on it, then going to a show and getting three players to sign who aren't Hall-of-Famers," said Alan Rosen, owner of Mr. Mint Inc. in Montvale, N.J., and author of sports collectible guides.
Trading cards can be both exciting and unpredictable. The 1986-87 Fleer Michael Jordan rookie card sold for $525 in 1992, reached $850 in 1993 and slid to $800 in 1994. But the 1992-93 Stadium Club rookie card of Shaquille O'Neal that sold for $20 in 1993 fell to $12 the following year and rose again to $15 when his team made a solid run in last year's playoffs.
"Baseball has always been the No. 1 collector sport, but it lost a lot of ground during its strike and has probably gone from 80 percent of the overall trading card market to more like 45 percent," said Tom Mortenson, editor of Sports Collectors Digest. "Football and basketball come next, followed by hockey."
Yet the array of cards churned out by so many companies results in confusion and has hurt potential collector value. "In baseball and football, there are simply too many brands of cards, because each card company is producing up to seven different brands, ranging from basic to midrange to premium and super-premium," said Theo Chen, an analyst with Beckett Publications of Dallas, which produces numerous card-pricing guides. "There are so many types that it's discouraging to some collectors."