Blame it on the weather. And on baseball. And on "ER." And definitely on O.J. Simpson.
Suddenly, people seem to have better things to do than rent videos. And that's sent the industry scurrying to find a scapegoat for one of its few prolonged slumps.Video rentals are down 5.4 percent so far this year compared with 1994, the trade magazine Video Store reports, with some weekly totals falling as far as 30 percent off last year's pace. The $6.29 billion that consumers have plunked down for rentals so far this year may seem like a hefty amount, but that's $460 million less than last year at this time.
"It's kind of a mystery why the figures have been dropping so much," says Video Store's market research manager Greg Hellwig. "But I think we've reached the peak of this business."
Steven Berrard, chief operating officer of the Blockbuster Entertainment Group, owner of the nation's biggest video chain, isn't worried. He says that sunshine, baseball and a burst of O.J.-related TV action caused the drop.
"That's not unusual. During the gulf war in 1991, we had the same thing happen, and then the next three years were great," he says. "You can't continue to grow at the same pace every year. It's just a reality shock that video has cycles to it."
Those cycles depend on what's on the big screen, and this year, says Bob Finlayson, vice president of communications for the Video Software Dealers Association, "there weren't very many good films out there six months ago, and that makes its way through the pipeline."
Retailers agree. Says Heather Hankamer, manager of a Dallas Premiere Video store: "I can't remember a time when we've had such bad releases."
What seems most strange is that rentals keep dropping while box-office revenues have spiked up 3.1 percent since 1994, Video Store reports. Finlayson dismisses that rise as the result of higher movie ticket prices.
Before year's end, the industry is hoping rental numbers will improve, with a pre-holiday blitz that includes such big releases as "Cinderella," "Apollo 13" and "The Mighty Morphin Power Rangers."
With spending on video sales still ahead of last year and VCRs in more than 80 percent of American homes, the medium should be around for a while.
That gives Berrard some justification for his optimism. But even though Blockbuster says it has nothing to worry about, the company's plan for long-term survival is diversification into music, magazines, novels and CD-ROM technology.
The little guys are more open about their doubts. "We think we'll be here at least 10 more years," Hankamer says, waiting for an incoming rainstorm to drive in customers. "At least we hope so."