The common perception that President Clinton is in deep trouble with voters and has lost much of his support from 1992 is not reflected in polls in 35 states, a polling expert said Monday.
Thad Beyle, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said polls indicate Clinton would have about the same support he did in 1992 if he were matched up with Republican Sen. Bob Dole, the GOP front-runner."While both projected 1996 major party candidates have considerable leads over anyone else in their own party for the nomination, neither candidate has a lead of any consequence across the states," Beyle said.
"In effect, the sum of these individual state poll results mirror the close race seen in the national poll results as we move closer to the state primaries."
Beyle compared poll results for 35 states in an article for the National Network of State Polls Newsletter, which is published through the Institute for Research in Social Science at UNC-Chapel Hill. The individual polls generally were commissioned by newspapers or done by university researchers.
While it is still too early to make solid predictions, Beyle wrote, the survey results indicate Clinton has picked up significant support in Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Jersey, exceeding his 1992 results by 10 percentage points or more.
In seven states, his support has increased since 1992 by 5 to 9 percentage points over his 1992 returns. The seven are New York, Arizona, Nebraska, California, Utah, Ohio and Wisconsin.
In Electoral College votes, the states where Clinton holds a clear lead would produce 207 votes. The states where Dole holds a clear lead would produce 137 votes.