Tax revenue is flowing - some might say flooding - into state coffers at such a rate that Gov. Mike Leavitt and legislators may be able to pay cash for huge transportation projects over the next several years.

GOP legislative leaders are privately talking about not raising the gasoline tax, not in 1996 or 1997 and maybe not even later. At some point, general obligation bonds would likely be issued to help pay for $2.7 billion worth of roadwork - about $1 billion for adding four lanes to I-15 in Salt Lake County. But such bonds could be years down the transportation-funding road, and no specific revenue stream - such as the gas tax - would be pledged against the bonds.One GOP legislative leader guesses "there's just a 50-50 chance of a gas tax hike next year."

Some groups have been clamoring for an increase in the 19-cent-per-gallon gas tax, saying it's only fair that those using the roads help pay for new road construction.

In fact, some legislators are saying the main reason behind Leavitt's Growth Summit '95 - which will feature one hour of prime-time live coverage Dec. 6 of Leavitt and others talking about road needs - is to help prepare Utahns for such a tax hike next year. At a recent public hearing on transportation needs, many speakers just assumedthe gas tax would be increased next year.

How can a gas tax hike be avoided?

Because the state government may be awash in new tax revenue.

Leavitt is a month away from presenting his 1996-97 budget and final revenue estimates for fiscal 1997 won't be put together until February 1996. But the state's economy is booming. New tax revenue may set a record, several sources said.

State and legislative budgeters estimated project revenue growth at about $250 million in the current budget year, 1995-96. GOP lawmakers demanded a $90 million property tax cut in the 1995 Legislature, and a change in the residential exemption avoided another $40 million to $50 million in new property taxes ordered by the Tax Commission.

One would think cutting $90 million out of the existing tax structure would make revenues for 1996-97 a little tight.

Not so, some state officials are saying privately. Where state documents show 8 percent to 9 percent growth in revenues over the past several years, 1996-97 growth could well peak over 10 percent. That could mean new tax revenue possibly even greater than this year's.

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Pushing much of that new money into roads could not only avoid a gas tax hike, but it would also hold down spending in other areas. And a number of conservative GOP lawmakers have been complaining for years that state government is growing too fast.

Some roadwork could begin in 1996 - the really expensive I-15 expansion wouldn't start for two years - and there may still be money left over for some kind of tax cut next year. Some incumbents would love a tax cut in 1996 - a year that sees Leavitt seeking re-election along with all the 75-member House and half the 29-member Senate.

Said one GOP legislative leader: "We could see no tax cut (in 1996) with all the new money going to roads and other needs, or we could see only a token cut or we could see a substantial reduction - and then we'd have a fight over whether we do something with the sales tax on food or another property tax reduction - maybe even an income tax cut."

Considering all the needs, the extra money and the politics, another Republican lawmaker said the 1996 Legislature "will be one of the most important and fascinating in recent years."

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