When the foreign minister of Sierra Leone returned home from the Commonwealth summit last week, he faced a grilling from reporters about Nigeria's suspension from the group.
After much squirming, Alhusine Fofana acknowledged what every leader in west Africa knows but hates to admit: Despite Nigeria's international image as a violent regime, it still calls the shots in this part of Africa and nobody can afford to offend it."We do have our national interests to consider," he said. "It would not be in our interest to go against Nigeria."
Since Nov. 10, when Nigeria hanged playwright Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight other dissidents accused of murder, more than 15 countries, including the United States, have withdrawn their ambassadors, and Nigeria has been suspended from the 52-nation Commonwealth of Britain and its former colonies.
South African President Nelson Mandela recently called the government of Gen. Sani Abacha an "illegitimate, barbaric, arrogant dictatorship" and urged an international boycott of Nigerian oil, which provides 80 percent of the country's export earnings.
Yet virtually none of Nigeria's west African neighbors, hooked on Nigerian assistance and cowed by its size and power, has condemned Abacha.
The general has tightened his hold on the region by military, economic and political means.
Nigeria supplies training, soldiers and heavy weapons to Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Gambia. It exports oil, natural gas and agricultural products to west African neighbors. It sends illegal pharmaceuticals to Ivory Coast and Ghana, where licensed medicines are prohibitively expensive.
It also plays a dominant role in the 16-member Economic Community of West African States and is credited with using its influence to push Liberia's warlords to sign a peace accord in August.
With a population of 100 million, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa. Lagos, its biggest city, is a major transit point for west African airlines.
The country's 100,000-member military dwarfs that of any other country in the region and puts Nigeria in a position to crush neighbors with whom it has simmering border disputes, such as Cameroon.
Nigeria has made clear it won't hesitate to use its clout against those who oppose it, especially if they support Mandela's call for sanctions against Nigerian oil.
"The campaign for sanctions . . . is a double-edged sword," Nigerian Foreign Minister Tom Ikimi informed foreign diplomats last week.
A Nigerian pro-government group, Concerned Africa, is urging Abacha to cut all assistance to Africa, which could lead to increased warfare in Sierra Leone and put Liberia's new peace accord in jeopardy. The result would be more instability in an already shaky region, with war-weary civilians and weaker governments, rather than Nigeria's junta, paying the price.
"There's no question if Nigeria blows, it will have drastic effects on the entire region," said George Ayittey, an economics professor at American University in Washington, D.C., and the head of the Free Africa Foundation think tank.
He and other critics of Abacha say that's a sacrifice west Africans must make if they are to get rid of the dictatorships and military regimes that dominate the region.
The rest of the world will not take Mandela's call for oil sanctions seriously unless Nigeria's own neighbors show they're willing to stand up to Abacha, Ayittey said in a telephone interview.
Human rights activists point out that in addition to security and financial concerns, west African countries have another reason to stay out of the Nigerian fray: Their own abysmal human rights rec-ords.
"Most of them are exhibiting . . . the same crass irresponsibility and total disregard for decency prevalent in Nigeria today," said Gani Fawahinmi, who is a lawyer and an anti-government activist in Nigeria. "They should be ashamed of themselves."