Back in the years shortly after the 1928 unveiling of the "modern" Dow Jones industrial average, market watchers weren't debating whether the average would ever reach 5,000.
"We wondered, `Will we ever see a million-share day?"' said Gene Jay Seagle.Seagle, 87, and the former technical research director at Gruntal & Co., who now dispenses advice from Tactics & Technics Consultants in Weston, Conn., has been watching the market for more than 60 years - beginning in the days when the Dow industrials were in double digits.
He's hung around long enough to see the average ride a remarkable bull market past 5,000.
The milestone, however, didn't come as a surprise.
"I was calling this a year ago," Seagle said in a recent interview.
Not all the veterans who have watched the tides and turns of the market are especially impressed with the 1995 bull market.
"My computer says it's no big deal," said Art Merrill, 89, head of Merrill Analysis in Haverford, Pa.
By Merrill's calculations, there have been 18 distinct "bull" markets since 1898. The current - that is, 19th - bull market started after the October 1987 crash and has added nearly 3,500 points to the Dow industrials.
But measured by percentage gain, the 19th bull market ranks sixth. Four of the other 18 bull markets would pushed the average past 6,000, and two of them would have moved it past 7,000.
"The great-grandaddy of 1921 to 1929 - that one would have reached 10,000," Merrill said - something he doubts this one will muster. "This one's kind of long in the tooth."
Some market neophytes who have seen the Dow industrials climb steadily might fail to appreciate that an entire career can go by without witnessing a new Dow millennium. Naturally, you can get a little jaded when the millennial marks pass like mile markers on the New Jersey Turnpike. It's happened twice this year - when the industrials closed above 4,000 on Feb. 23 and when they closed above 5,000 on Nov. 20. It was the first time the blue-chip barometer ever topped two millennial points in a single year. But the achievements become less impressive as the market grows, because the distance separating the milestones gets smaller on a percentage basis.
Over the years, such milestones came on an irregular basis, at best.
For example in 1929 - the year after the introduction of the "modern" Dow Jones industrial average (comprising today's table of 30 industrial stocks) - the average reached 386. It subsequently collapsed, heralding the arrival of the Depression, then took another 25 years to reach that level again.
"Milestones, more often than not, do tend to lead into plateaus," said Harry Laubscher, senior vice president and market analyst at Tucker Anthony Inc., who has been watching the market since the late 1950s.
Laubscher recalled that the market got close to 1,000 in 1966. "But it couldn't stand success," Laubscher said.
In fact, it took more than 44 years from the time the "modern" Dow Jones industrial average was introduced until it managed to close above 1,000, on Nov. 14, 1972.
It took another 14 years - until Jan. 8, 1987 - for the average to top 2,000. Since then, there's been less time between milestones, with the average reaching 3,000 in April 1991 and 4,000 and 5,000 this year.
"When it gets beyond the millennial points, it seems to pause a bit," Laubscher said.
"It's like a rubber band," said Merrill of Merrill Analysis. "You reach greater resistance as you stretch the thing."
Merrill recognizes that, in his words, "Milestones create talk."
The talk today is of more milestones. An increasingly common refrain heard among analysts: "10 in 2" - meaning, 10,000 points in the year 2000.
"Bully for them," said Seagle, the Tactics and Technics consultant. "I won't be around to worry about it."