Despite the bleak reports of a Communist resurgence in Russia, the United States and other Western nations can find reasons for optimism following last weekend's elections.
For one thing, the plebiscite was conducted successfully and, by all accounts, fairly. That marks only the second time since the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917 that Russians have been allowed to express themselves freely at the polls. The 65 percent turnout rate shows Russians still are concerned enough to get involved. Experts had incorrectly predicted a low turnout, saying corruption and crime had bred apathy.For another thing, the election was hardly a resounding victory for Communists - at least not one that will lead to a complete rollback of democratic reforms. Partial returns showed the Communists with 22 percent of the vote, followed by ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky's party with 11 percent. The remaining votes were spread among 41 other parties, many of them stressing democratic reforms.
A party would need a two-thirds majority in Russia's parliament to override President Boris Yeltsin and force changes. Hard-liners will be nowhere near that powerful.
And despite the Communist victory, a telling statistic shows the average age of a party member to be 55 - only four years less than the average life-expectancy for the Russian male. The Communist Party, then, would appear to have a bleak future.
The election in many ways was an understandable response to difficult economic times. Living standards are on the decline, even as crime and corruption are on the rise. Americans generally vote for change when things are bad, and Russians are no different.
Still, the election should serve as a wake-up call for Yeltsin, who stands for re-election in June. He needs to somehow rally support for reforms and reduce corruption by then to avoid the election of a Communist as president. It also should increase efforts by Americans and other Western governments to support Russian reforms and to remind Moscow of the benefits of membership in the brotherhood of nations that support basic freedoms.
Communists are anti-Western, and that could translate into a more strident foreign policy. It also could slow market reforms, particularly the sale of government-owned properties.
Ultimately, however, hard-line factions would have great difficulty reimposing Soviet-style Communism under any scenario. Part of the reason has to do with reforms that have spread power to the provinces. But part of it has to do with a by-product of democracy Americans tend to complain about most - special-interest lobbies. Privatization has given rise to powerful business lobbies that are sure to push for a more open market.
As any American knows, powerful lobbies can be difficult to rebuff.