The list is public, the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission is chosen, targeted communities are preparing their arguments - all the chips are in place for a showdown in the 1995 round of military base closings.
Defense Secretary William Perry has recommended closing or realigning 146 bases. In Utah, Defense Depot Ogden was recommended for closure, Dugway Proving Ground for significant reduction, and Hill Air Force Base for realignment.In contrast to the closely guarded selection process within the Department of Defense, the proceedings before the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission (BRAC) will be public, political and messy.
Mike Pavich, president of Hill/DDO '95, a group working to keep Hill Air Force Base and Defense Depot Ogden open, likens the decisionmaking process of the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission (BRAC) to a trial.
Perry is the prosecution, presenting evidence against the installations he has recommended for closure or realignment.
Representatives of communities affected by closed or realigned bases are the defense, trying to convince the jury that the Defense Department has it all wrong, that their base is a lot better than those others that were spared.
BRAC is the jury which, after hearing all the arguments and analyzing the data, votes thumbs up or thumbs down for each base.
President Clinton and Congress are the judges who sign off on the jury's recommendations.
Perhaps surprisingly for Court TV addicts, this "trial" is going to cost a lot more and be a lot more complicated than the prosecution of O.J. Simpson. For one thing, there will be a lot more defense lawyers. Every single community neighboring the 146 bases on the list, each one having its own hired consultants, will be making the case for reversal.
"Every affected community has a seat at the table," said David Lyles, BRAC staff director.
The commission, or more specifically its staff, will exhaustively examine reams of data and plug it into a computer modeling and analysis program (COBRA). Politicians will shmooze and twist arms to gain favorable treatment for the base in their district. Base workers will watch anxiously.
It promises to be quite a production.
In theory, the BRAC functions solely to determine whether the Defense Department followed the eight selection criteria, including military value, whether closure would save government money, and economic and environmental impact. In practice, however, things are a lot looser.
"The law says that we use the criteria," said Wade Nelson, BRAC communications director, "but there is pretty broad discretion within that charge."
"They call them the God Squad back there - there's very little limitation to what they can do," Pavich said.
In the 1991 and 1993 closure rounds, BRAC approved about 80 percent of the Defense Department's recommendations. The current mission of Utah base sup-por-ters: move Dugway and Defense Depot Ogden into the lucky 20 percent, and keep Hill where it is.
It has taken a while to get a commission at all. BRAC chairman Alan Dixon, a former senator from Illinois, has been the lone member for over four months waiting for the president to nominate and the Senate to confirm the other seven members.
In the latest of many delays, Sens. Alfonse D'Amato, R-N.Y., and Daniel Patrick Moynihan, D-N.Y., held up the confirmation of the nominees in protest over the fact that none of them had New York connections. But the holdouts finally relented Thursday and the nominees sailed through on a unanimous voice vote.
The eight commissioners are: Dixon, Alton Cornella of South Dakota, Rebecca Cox of California, retired Air Force Gen. James Davis of Florida, retired Army Gen. Joe Robles Jr. of Texas, Lee Kling of Maryland, Benjamin Montoya of New Mexico and Wendi Louise Steele of Texas.
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ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Realignment calendar
Here is the schedule for the 1995 round of military base closures and realignments (some events have already occurred):
Feb. 28: The Department of Defense makes its recommendations to the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission (BRAC).
March 1: BRAC holds its first hearing with the one confirmed member, chairman Alan Dixon, sitting alone.
March 1 - June 30: BRAC reviews recommendations, visits bases, analyzes data, and holds commissioner briefings and regional hearings.
March 2: The Senate confirms President Clinton's seven remaining nominees for BRAC.
June 1: Deadline for adding additional bases to the list for comparison with bases already targeted for closure or realignment.
July 1: BRAC delivers its recommendations for closure and realignment to the president.
July 15: The president accepts or rejects the BRAC list. If he accepts it, Congress has 45 days to disapprove the list by a two-thirds majority of both houses or it automatically becomes law. If he rejects it, the list goes back to BRAC for further study. Neither the president nor Congress can add or subtract individual bases from the list.