Entering the NBA's 50th anniversary season, everyone is wondering if the Chicago Bulls can be caught.
And the general consensus is: NO."I don't see anyone closing the gap on them," said Utah Jazz guard Jeff Hornacek. "You have to hope, to close the gap on the Bulls, that (Dennis) Rodman gets on their nerves, or that the intensity disappears a little bit."
"No. No way," said Orlando guard Anfernee Hardaway. "Their players know how to play together. They have great chemistry. Everybody knows Michael (Jordan) and Scottie (Pippen) are the two best perimeter players in the league, but it's Rodman that makes the difference. Rodman and their team chemisty. Other teams are trying to build chemistry. The Bulls already have it."
"As long as Michael wants to play, it's going to be tough to beat Chicago," said Pacers coach Larry Brown.
Jazz guard John Stockton said he didn't see any team make moves that would put them in the same class as the Bulls, but then he added, "I didn't watch it that closely. I couldn't even begin to fill out the rosters for most teams."
And that is another fact about this NBA season. Never in league history has there been so much player turnover in an offseason. Several teams changed half or more of their personnel.
That turnover makes this a harder-than-usual season to forecast. There are major chemistry questions on some of the more prominent teams. The Lakers, for instance, added Shaquille O'Neal's hefty ego to an already crowded ego situation. Other teams put themselves in position to have morale problems by paying huge salaries to guys who figure to be mere role players.
With all that in mind, here are my predictions for this NBA race:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Midwest Division
1. Utah Jazz - Banking on stability for return to conference finals, at least. Lost Felton Spencer and David Benoit, who weren't spectacular but contributed something. Gained only guard Brooks Thompson, who could have hard time finding minutes in crowded backcourt. Need steady play from Bryon Russell, Greg Ostertag to win division.
2. San Antonio Spurs - With David Robinson injured, they'll struggle for awhile. Dominique Wilkins couldn't play two years ago with Boston, and Vernon Maxwell is unstable. Spurs didn't play much D last year, and 'Nique won't help on that front. They're due to slip some but will make the playoffs easily.
3. Houston Rockets - Starting team that includes Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler and Charles Barkley should be prolific, but how about this for a bench: Mario Elie, Matt Bullard, Charles Jones, Sam Mack, Tracy Moore and a couple of rookies. Phew! At times, lack of depth will cost them.
4. Denver Nuggets - They made wholesale changes, and it's anybody's guess what it will mean. Starting squad of Mark Jackson, Bryant Stith, Antonio McDyess, LaPhonso Ellis and Ervin Johnson isn't bad. Bench is OK. If someone steps forward and provides leadership, which they've lacked, they should play in the postseason.
5. Dallas Mavericks - Added some guys who will help - Derek Harper, Eric Montross, Chris Gatling - but will that be enough to overcome ego clash between Jason Kidd, Jimmy Jackson, Jamal Mashburn? If they trade a `J', they could be a borderline playoff team.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves - There are some interesting newcomers here, including Aussie guard Shane Heal, who shot the lights out in the Delta Center this summer against the Dream Team and rookie Stephon Marbury. Getting rid of J.R. Rider and Christian Laettner is a plus.
7. Vancouver Grizzlies - Some teams of longstanding could learn from these guys. Picked up contributors in draft picks Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Roy Rogers, Anthony Peeler, George Lynch, Pete Chilcutt, Lee Mayberry. (OK, it's no All-Star team, but it's an improvement.) Might win 25.
Pacific Division
1. Seattle Supersonics - If center Jim McIlvaine proves to be only a mild bust, he still may be a bigger factor than departed center Ervin Johnson. Seattle may not be light years better than last season, but chemistry edge should allow them to stay ahead of the Lakers.
2. Los Angeles Lakers - The Lakers will win a lot of games, but you have to believe that at some point they're going to suffer a major ego-collision. Shaq will resent teen-ager Kobe Bryant getting all the media attention, or Cedric Ceballos will decide to go surfing, or Nick Van Exel will punch David Stern.
3. Portland Trail Blazers - This is third place by default; after L.A. and Seattle, division is iffy. If they stay out of jail, they should stay ahead of Suns. But how can you expect consistency from a team that includes head cases J.R. Rider, Rasheed Wallace and Kenny Anderson?
4. Phoenix Suns - They'll lead the league in injuries but still have sufficient depth - thanks to the wholesale infusion of ex-Rockets - to win enough games to finish a distant fourth. Rookie Steve Nash may make Kevin Johnson expendable.
5. Sacramento Kings - These guys were so happy about making the playoffs that they went out and acquired Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf from Denver, thus assuring a slip back into the lottery. What they'll discover is that Mahmoud doesn't guard anybody and shoots 20 times a night. On a good night, he makes a few.
6. Golden State Warriors - They didn't lose much or add much to a team that struggled to be mediocre last season. They're banking on return of disgruntled center Rony Seikaly, which would help, but trade for couple of contributors might help more, given Seikaly's unhappiness in Oakland. Lottery.
7. Los Angeles Clippers - Return of Brian Williams would help, but not enough to get these guys into the playoffs.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic Division
1. New York Knicks - They should get enough production from newcomers Larry Johnson, Chris Childs, Allan Houston and Buck Williams to take charge in weak division.
2. Washington Bullets - Solid core with Gheorghe Muresan, Juwan Howard, Rod Strickland, Calbert Cheaney and Chris Webber, if he stays healthy. Question: Can Strickland finally get along with a coach? Answer could make or break them.
3. Orlando Magic - They'll shoot a lot of threes, but good looks may be harder to get without O'Neal attracting attention in the middle. Starting lineup is still strong, and they were 20-8 without Shaq last season. Bench stinks.
4. Miami Heat - Once Juwan Howard deal was killed the Heat dropped from division contenders to possible lottery team. They lost steady Chris Gatling, versatile Walt Williams, Ty Corbin and Rex Chapman, added over-the-hill Dan Majerle, overrated forward P.J. Brown. They'll make the playoffs on defense.
5. Philadelphia 76ers - New coach Johnny Davis can be no worse than John Lucas, but he faces the age-old dilemma: how to provide enough shots to satisfy Derrick Coleman, Jerry Stackhouse, Allen Iverson, Clarence Weatherspoon. Free-agent acquisitions were of little consequence. Lottery.
6. New Jersey Nets - Projected starting team: oft-injured Kendall Gill and Robert Pack, inconsistent Shawn Bradley, out-for-season David Benoit, steady Jayson Williams. Enjoy the lottery, John Calipari. Kerry Kittles is a legitimate rookie-of-the-year candidate, especially playing with this group.
7. Boston Celtics - Once again, the Celtics' offseason moves left everyone bewildered. Frank Brickowski? And then rookie Eric Williams showed up in camp a few gross of donuts heavier. There's no coherent game plan here, and they can't shoot.
Central Division
1. Chicago Bulls - Only one guy can stop this team: Michael Jordan. He'd have to lose interest for other teams to catch up. They won't win 70, but they'll win enough to finish atop the division.
2. Indiana Pacers - Why would you trade Mark Jackson for Jalen Rose? Rose hasn't proven he's an NBA point guard yet, but Pacers apparently are banking that he will. They'll get off to a slow start due to injuries (Rik Smits, rookie Erick Dampier), but they're deep enough to hang in for long haul.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers - You have to like this team. Coach Mike Fratello gets as much out of his guys, defensively, as any coach in the league. Rookie Vitaly Potapenko will make a major contribution.
4. Milwaukee Bucks - Jazz personnel chief Scott Layden thought Bucks rookie Ray Allen was the best prospect in the draft. Newcomers Armon Gilliam, Andrew Lang and Elliott Perry will help. With two All-Star-caliber players in Vin Baker and Glenn Robinson, there's no reason they shouldn't make the playoffs.
5. Atlanta Hawks - They abandoned Stacey Augmon and Grant Long to Detroit to clear salary-cap room to sign Dikembe Mutombo. This will be a test of Mutombo's value to a team; is he a franchise player? Nope. Borderline playoff team.
6. Detroit Pistons - Grant Hill is getting awfully cocky, apparently having decided (gee, do we smell an agent here?) that it will improve his image. They'll take a million outside shots. Without a center, though, they could slip back into lottery country.
7. Charlotte Hornets - New coach Dave Cowens may find out why moody Anthony Mason was shipped out of New York. Unless Muggsy Bogues gets healthy, this team doesn't have an experienced point guard. Lottery. How did Cowens do in last stint as coach?
8. Toronto Raptors - Like Grizzlies, made some good moves, bringing in Hubert Davis, Walt Williams and Popeye Jones and drafting Marcus Camby, while losing no one important. They'll be better but still in the lottery.