President Clinton is crowing like a rooster. No, more than that. He's carrying on like that rooster in a TV commercial that sings an aria from "Carmen," and he would seem to have reason. The federal budget deficit this year is down to $107 billion. That's 63 percent less than in George Bush's last year as president, and it's the lowest the deficit has been as a percentage of the total economy in 22 years.
Does the president deserve credit? Well, some. In 1993, for instance, he and a Democratic Congress gave America the biggest nominal tax increase in its history, mainly aimed at top incomes, and that's naturally enough boosted revenue.Did the Republican Congress have a role, too, as the GOP is claiming? To some extent, yes it did. The spending curbs it forced on the administration over the past two years have had an impact.
After that, the guesswork begins. Clearly, the economy has been performing better than expected, partly because of government actions (such as the Fed being less aggressive in raising interest rates) and some of it because of factors only barely related to government policies, if at all. For instance, it looks like some people who have fared well in the stock market are cashing in, boosting revenues from the capital gains tax.
There's not much guesswork about one fact though. The deficit is due to surge again, chiefly because of an issue Clinton is loath to address, the growth of Social Security and Medicare. And if Clinton gets re-elected, as everyone seems to anticipate, and should actually follow through on all of his promises, the deficit would soon enough get back to where it was.
Clinton's crowing should stop.