The Bill Orton/Chris Cannon 3rd District race is too close to call, and Gov. Mike Leavitt may well be on his way to a record win Tuesday.
Those are just some of the results in the final Deseret News/KSL election poll conducted this past week.The most up-to-date poll (other media polls are now two weeks old) shows that Republican Cannon has crept up on Orton, a three-term Democrat fighting this year for his political life. Cannon has spent more than $1 million of his own money in trying to unseat Orton.
Pollster Dan Jones & Associates found that among registered voters in the 3rd District, Orton is favored 47 percent to 43 percent. Jones polled 413 registered voters in that race, making the margin of error plus or minus 5 percent. So statistically the race could well be tied.
Other races in the state aren't so close, although Jones has 2nd District Democratic candidate Ross Anderson closer to Republican Merrill Cook than did earlier polls. Cook has a 15-point lead over Anderson, 53 percent to 38 percent,the new Deseret News/KSL survey shows.
Leavitt may well get more than 70 percent of the vote in his first re-election bid. Democrat Jim Brad-ley has only 13 percent support in the new poll, Leavitt has 81 percent.
In 1972, Gov. Cal Rampton, seeking an unprecedented third term, got 69.7 percent of the vote, setting the record.
Bob Dole continues to lead President Clinton in Utah. But considering that Clinton finished third in Utah in 1992 (the only state where he did so badly), the 48 percent to 32 percent Dole lead here isn't so terrible.
Jones gives the following warning in reading the poll numbers: The poll is a snapshot of voters' opinions on the days it was conducted, Oct. 28-31. It is not a prediction to how people will vote come Tuesday, although certainly in races where one candidate is way ahead it's likely that person will win in the election.
It's natural that races tighten as Election Day nears and people start paying more attention, said Jones. He said his polling shows that Democrats are more energized this election than Republicans, although overall interest is down from four years ago.
"I look for a voter turnout of between 77 percent and 80 percent (of registered voters), down a bit from 1992" in Utah, Jones said.
While Democrats may be more interested than Republicans, there are a lot more Republicans. A Democrat leads in only two of the races surveyed, found Jones.
Orton leads in the 3rd District (just barely) and Attorney General Jan Graham holds a healthy 22 percentage point lead over GOP Iron County Attorney Scott Burns in the attorney general race, Jones found.
Otherwise, it's close to a Republican sweep.
In two county commission races measured, Salt Lake County Commissioner Brent Overson is well ahead of Democrat Paula Flint and Reform Party candidate Pearl Meibos.
And in Davis County, Gayle Stevenson, the GOP candidate, has a 2-to-1 lead over Kathleen McConkie Collinwood, the Democrat, found Jones.
"But count on at least one surprise," said Jones. Especially in less-known races or ballot propositions, there could be big swings come Election Day.
For example, Democrat D'Arcy Pignanelli has really pounded on Republican state Treasurer Ed Alter this year. Jones found Alter holds a 36 percent to 28 percent lead over Pignanelli. But a third of the voters are undecided, and that race could go either way.
While one can't predict individual legislative races from general, overall perceptions, Jones found that Republicans should feel good about their chances in state House and Senate races.
Jones found that 54 percent of Utahns plan to vote for GOP Senate and House candidates, Democrats get just around 25 percent support.
The Legislature is heavily Republican now and no one predicted that Democrats could take enough seats away Tuesday to swing the balance of power in the state House or Senate.
*****
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Deseret News poll
If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote?
Clinton/Gore (D) 32%
Dole/Kemp (R) 48%
Perot/Choate (Reform) 9%
Others 4%
Don't know 8%
Which of the following candidates would you vote for as governor of the state of Utah?
Mike Leavitt (R) 81%
Jim Bradley (D) 13%
Others 2%
Don't know 5%
Which of the following candidates would you choose for Utah's attorney general?
Jan Graham (D) 54%
Scott Burns (R) 32%
Andrew McCullough (I) 2%
Don't know 12%
Which of the following candidates would you choose for state auditor?
Karen Truman (D) 24%
Auston Johnson (R) 39%
Other 1%
Don't know 36%
Which of the following would you choose for state treasurer?
D'Arcy Pignanelli (D) 28%
Ed Alter (R) 36%
Hugh Butler (L) 2%
Other 1%
Don't know 33%
If the election for Congress in Utah's 1st Congressional District were today, for whom would you vote?
Jim Hansen (R) 69%
Greg Sanders (D) 24%
Others 2%
Don't know 7%
If the election for Congress in Utah's 2nd Congressional District were today, for whom would you vote?
Ross Anderson (D) 38%
Merrill Cook (R) 53%
Others 2%
Don't know 7%
If the election for Congress in Utah's 3rd Congressional District were today, for whom would you vote?
Bill Orton (D) 47%
Chris Cannon (R) 43%
Others 1%
Don't know 8%
For Salt Lake County Commission, for whom would you vote?
Paulina Flint (D) 18%
Brent Overson (R) 53%
Lawrence Kauffman (Ind. Am.) 1%
Brent Olsen (L) 2%
Pearl Meibos (Reform) 2%
Don't know 24%
For Davis County Commission, for whom would you vote?
Gayle Stevenson (R) 54%
Kathleen McConkie Collinwood (D) 28%
Don't know 17%
Would you vote for or against a resolution amending the revenue and taxation article and education article for the support of public education and higher education systems (proposition No. 6)?
For 52%
Against 14%
Don't know 35%
Poll conducted Oct. 28-31, 1996, by Dan Jones & Associates. In statewide races and propositions, 1,213 registered voters were intervied for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percent. In the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts he interviewed 400 registered voters for a margin of error of plus or minus 5.0 percent. In the 3rd District he interviewed 413 registered voters for a margin of error of plus or minus 5.0 percent. In the Salt Lake County race he interviewed 523 registered voters for a margin of error of 4.5 percent. In Davis County he interviewed 201 registered voters for a margin of error of 7.0 percent. Copyright 1996 Deseret News. Dan Jones & Associates is an independent pollster who sometimes polls for private businesses and political camdidates and parties. In this election year Jones' political clients include Mike Leavitt, Jan Graham and Chris Cannon. The Deseret News/KSL poll was conducted separately by Jones from any political candidate clients he may have.