Wayne Hartley leans against a wooden fence and peers at the spatula-tailed manatees moving lazily below the water's surface. The Blue Spring State Park ranger has spent the past 17 years counting and identifying the plump, gray mammals that winter in the warm waters north of Orlando.

This year, the tally has yielded some surprising results. By his count, 94 manatees have paid the park a visit - more than at any time since rangers began keeping track more than two decades ago.Nor is the good news limited to this palm- and oak-shaded refuge. Last month scientists counted 2,274 of the endangered species along Florida's coasts and waterways - 400 more than the high counts recorded in '92 and '94.

The digits on Hartley's notepad reflect a quiet controversy erupting in Florida over this state's popular icon. Are the submarine-shaped sea cows staging a come-back?

"Two years ago people assumed the population was declining," says Bruce Ackerman, marine mammal biologist at the Florida Department of Environmental Protection in St. Petersburg. "I'm putting forward the case it's increasing."

Others argue that the higher numbers don't represent a burgeoning population so much as scientists' improved methods of track-ing manatees.

But some Floridians question the count's accuracy altogether, saying the marine mammals today are not as threatened as once thought. "There are a lot more than 2,274," maintains Ted Guy, president of the Marine Industries Association of Florida.

Thus, while scientists are buoyed by the higher numbers, they are also concerned the new data may be used to portray greater conservation efforts as unnecessary. They maintain the slow-moving sea mammals need more protec-tion than ever.

The reason: "More and more people are moving here, and no sign of it stopping," Hartley says.

The manatees' biggest threat is man. In 1995, of the 201 mammals scientists found dead, almost a quarter were killed by boats. Nearly all manatees bear the scars from run-ins with boat propellers. Other causes of human-related manatee mortalities include being crushed or drowned in canal locks and flood-control structures, ingestion of fish hooks, and entanglement in crab trap lines. Loss of habitat by burgeoning development is also a serious threat.

"People move here because they want to live near the coast, buy a boat, and go fishing," Ackerman says. "There are three quarters of a million registered boats in Florida. That number has doubled in 20 years, and the number of manatees killed by boats has increased." Pollution from sewage and pesticide runoff from farms is reducing and destroying the fragile sea grasses the manatees eat.

Though the manatee has been protected under the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 and the Endangered Species Act of 1973, the past 10 years have seen the greatest growth in conservation efforts. The Florida Department of Natural Resources works with 13 "key" manatee counties to reduce injuries and deaths by developing boat speed limits and local manatee protection plans. Manatee sanctuaries have been created, and research and public awareness programs have grown.

Supporters are anxious to continue expanding the efforts to preserve the manatee, which adorns license plates, is the focus of a 38,000-member club and has been swimming in Florida's waters for more than 45 million years.

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Some Floridians say more boating speed limits and restrictions should be placed on waterways. But representatives of the marine industry say Florida's waters already have enough limits. While they support preserving the sea cows, they emphasize that manatee boat deaths represent just one cause of mortality.

"There's a tremendous increase in the past year or so of perinatal deaths, unexplained deaths and natural causes," says Guy. "I think a lot more in pathology needs to be done to find out why these animals are dying, because we really don't know in many cases what caused the death."

Guy also says the manatee surveys don't count all the animals. The counts are conducted by plane on one of the coldest days of the year when many manatees congregate in about 20 warm water areas.

Back at Blue Spring State Park, Hartley agrees that the manatee population may be ticking upward. "But it's too slow a rate to withstand increased stress," he says as he watches whiskered snouts break the water surface to breathe.

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