With Taiwan girding for a confrontation, the United States is sending warships closer to the island as a response to military exercises China is conducting in the Straits of Taiwan.
"The potential for something serious to happen has never been greater," a Western diplomat said. "The Taiwanese are going to have to be very skillful to make sure that doesn't take place."Beginning Tuesday, China will carry out eight days of live-fire exercises by air and naval forces close to the heart of the Taiwan Strait. The activities are slated to go until March 20 - just days before the island's first free presidential elections.
On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher said that a battle group headed by the aircraft carrier USS Independence will move closer to Taiwan and help it if necessary.
In Taiwan's capital of Taipei, officials announced they have formed a disaster center to ensure operations of the president's office, the cabinet, parliament and other key bodies in the event of war.
The island's 400,000-member army has been on full alert since the missile tests were announced, sporadically firing their own shells at uninhabited rocks in the Taiwan Strait.
The last time any sort of confrontation involving China, Taiwan and the United States loomed was during the Cold War, when Chinese troops regularly shelled the nearby island of Quemoy.
Aviation authorities said the high-profile exercises will force more than 300 flights a day to alter their routes to and from Taiwan.
Newspapers quoted Chinese military sources warning there would be still more military exercises in the area in the future.
There was speculation that Chinese forces might move to occupy one of several undefended islands claimed by Taiwan. The military exercises, along with last Friday's test firing of three M-9 missiles into the sea not far from the island's two major ports, are timed to play havoc during the campaign for Taiwan's first democratic presidential election March 23.
China's actions are designed to erode support for President Lee Teng-hui, the election front-runner, whom Chinese leaders accuse of supporting Taiwan independence. Mainland China lost control over Taiwan in 1949, when it was occupied by Nationalist troops fleeing victorious Communist troops at the end of the country's long, bitter civil war.
Since then, China has fiercely maintained its claim to sovereignty over Taiwan, vowing to attack if the island moves towards independence. So far, however, all actions have been confined to international waters and are well within China's legal rights.
What worries many observers - at least for now - is not so much the threat of military confrontation as the possibility of a miscalculation or military mistake leading to inadvertent hostilies, given frayed emotions and the exercises' proximity to Taiwan.
Taiwan's defense minister, Chiang Chung-ling, has already threatened military retaliation if there are any incursions into Taiwan territorial waters. While most Taiwanese appear unruffled by the closeness of enemy maneuvers, war preparations on the island are proceeding.
Analysts said the use of live ammunition during this week's military exercises could be even more menacing than last week's missiles, which carried dummy warheads.
Chinese authorities warned countries to keep their ships and airplanes outside the zone until maneuvers end March 20.
Lee, who denies supporting independence, remained defiant. "I ask you to choose a leader who is experienced and wise so that when we deal with Communist China you can rest at ease," he told voters while campaigning Sunday.
"The 21 million people in Taiwan should find confidence despite a storm, and choose with dignity the first democratically elected president in the 5,000 years of Chinese history."
Earlier, in a televised speech, Lee said that "force and threats will not obstruct the pursuit of democracy, freedom and dignity."
There was also plenty of tough talk on the Chinese side.
In a hard-hitting, rare joint editorial appearing in both the Communist Party's official People's Daily and the People's Liberation Army Daily, China charged that Taiwan independence will bring "serious calamity" to the island.
"We won't let it happen," the editorial declared, hinting that some form of naval blockade might be imposed.
One thing China's military threats haven't done is convince more Taiwanese of the benefits of reunification. According to a Taipei newspaper, support for reunification has dropped from 20 percent last July to 16 percent, while support for independence has gone from 14 percent to 17 percent. Nearly half of those polled said they wanted to keep the status quo.
As China got ready for its new round of war games, five journalists - three from Hong Kong and two from Taiwan - were expelled for trying to cover the military's big buildup in the province of Fujian, close to Taiwan. Foreign journalists working in China are not permitted to travel inside the country without first obtaining permission from the foreign ministry.