Juggling water obligations, weather and potential runoff, Utah's reservoir managers hedge their bet against nature.
Anticipating a poor water year, many water masters kept their levels high this fall and will anxiously watch the weather forecast as runoff approaches, typically starting in April.Rising steadily, one of the state's newest reservoirs, Jordanelle, could fill to capacity this year, weather willing.
"It all depends. It's kind of at the threshold," said R. Jay Henrie, manager of the resource management division of the Provo area office of the Bureau of Reclamation. "If it's gradual snow melt and occurs over a longer time, then we think it probably will fill."
Filling criteria requires that the reservoir not rise more than 6 inches per day. With little more than 30 feet left to go, that translates to 60 days of gradual runoff if all goes well.
"My gut feeling is it probably won't quite make it," Henrie said. "The snowpack is certainly there . . . the question is how it comes off, the duration of the runoff."
At capacity, the reservoir will hold some 311,000 acre feet of water.
Utah Lake continues to operate above compromise, an elevation agreed upon by water users and local landowners. The effects of the lake level are evident by the high-flowing Jordan River.
"The Jordan River is high right now because Utah Lake is releasing everything that's going into it," said Bureau of Reclamation hydrologic engineer Bob Adams. "Utah Lake can't store any more water."
In the Sevier River Basin, reservoir capacity is nearly 100 percent, with recent reports showing all but Panguitch Lake filled to the brim.
Afton Blood, president of the Sevier River Water Users Association, reports that at least three reservoirs in his area are spilling over, the Otter Creek, Piute and Sevier Bridge.
"Our storage looks good. It's the snowpack in the mountains that has us worried," he said. The Sevier basin snowpack remains down by 20 percent.
The idea is to have the reservoirs full by June, drawing them down in October for irrigation. Water managers then set the levels by watching weather patterns throughout the fall and winter.
"Reservoir storage down there is absolutely phenomenal," confirmed Randy Julander, snow survey supervisor for the Natural Resources Conservation Service.
"Starting last October with the dry fall and then January was dry, they went to minimum releases and kept their reservoirs fuller than normal," Adams said. "They've kept them up high going into the winter."
The managers shoot for a delicate balance throughout the wet months, releasing and holding back water as they spot climatic or snowpack changes on the horizon. In the state's southern regions, the fluctuating weather patterns often make their efforts a gamble, or exercise in chance.
"In southern Utah we have huge climatic extremes. Almost to the point of saying that abnormal is really normal," Julander said. "The variation swings from 1993, from when they had an all-time snowpack record, to some of the lowest snowpack years we've had."
With the natural deadline for snowpack accumulation looming near - April 1 - areas like the Sevier basin are in deficit. On one hand, that can be good as such loss was anticipated and the reservoirs were managed accordingly through the winter. If an extremely heavy snowfall were to strike now, with several of the reservoirs at capacity, the threat for flooding would increase.
"They try to go into (winter) with at least 50 percent carry-over from the fall," said Bill Alder, meteorologist in charge of the Salt Lake Forecast Office, National Weather Service. "Whatever happens during the winter is very important."
More moisture is likely in the forecast as many areas around Utah anticipate cloudy skies and thunderstorms on Tuesday. The balmy highs of 70s and 80s this weekend will drop to 40s, 50s and 60s in many places through the week.