Is the Earth warming up so much and so fast that its inhabitants are in danger? That question has caused a great deal of debate among scientists and among energy-consuming nations whose industries produce much of the pollution that's being blamed for the climatic changes.
The problem is we may not have the luxury to wait for definitive answers to that question before taking action to slow the warming trend. It's a bit like a sky diver waiting too long for the main parachute to open before pulling the cord on the auxiliary chute.More scientists are becoming concerned about the possible health consequences of global warming. They believe the Earth's climate will change rapidly in the coming century as pollution in the atmosphere traps solar radiation - the so-called greenhouse effect.
A 262-page report issued by the World Health Organization, the World Meteorological Organization and the U.N. Environment Program is one of the most thorough examinations yet done on the issue. Its findings and its warnings should prompt the United States and other nations to take the issue more seriously.
While the study concedes that the predictions are far from certain and that much more research needs to be done, it also warns against taking a "wait-and-see" approach, since the possible consequences of doing nothing could be dangerous. Those consequences include deadly heat waves and the spread of diseases such as malaria in countries that don't now have them.
In a 1992 treaty, ratified by 159 nations, the industrialized countries agreed to reduce and stabilize their emissions of greenhouse gases by the year 2000 at the levels that prevailed in 1990. Unfortunately, almost none of them will meet that target. Even if they did, the current scientific consensus is that more needs to be done to head off global warming.
The Clinton administration adopted a largely voluntary program of measures to reduce the pollution after the treaty was signed, but greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise every year since the treaty was written. Clearly, industrialists won't respond to a call for voluntary compliance. Mandatory requirements must be set.
President Clinton is expected to call for tougher steps to control pollution but is not expected to propose specific new measures to reverse the trend until after the November election - if he is elected.
The United States should follow the lead of other nations that are calling for steps ranging from increased taxes on energy to global standards for fuel efficiency.
In a report issued in London last Thursday, the World Energy Council, an independent research group, said that carbon dioxide emissions, largely from burning of fossil fuels, rose 12 percent between 1990 and 1995, and said that immediate action was required to reverse the trend.
The new report supports those who are calling for early action, despite the uncertainties.
If immediate steps are taken to curb pollution and current scientific research is eventually proven to be inaccurate, the loss will be financial. But if inadequate action is taken and the predictions are correct, the consequences would be much more serious.
Considering what is known, a wait-and-see approach would be imprudent at best and dangerous at worst.