Gaylon Logan Jr., an African American single father in San Francisco, hears the major presidential candidates talk often about the problems facing urban America today: youth crime, drugs, welfare, jobs.
But he wonders whether Bill Clinton and Bob Dole really understand. Neither has experienced life in the inner city, raised kids alone or watched poverty and drugs erode the futures of promising young kids in the black community, as Logan has.Logan, much like legions of other African American voters, is demanding substantive answers about "what they're going to do for the children" and for black Americans striving for economic security.
"What I'd tell them is that a proclamation and political speeches are fine - but you can't eat them," said Logan, who heads Infusion One, a non-profit group helping poor kids in San Francisco's Bayview-Hunters Point neighborhood.
The 12.7 million registered black voters nationwide may have a uniquely influential role in the presidential race and dozens of congressional contests that could determine the longevity of the 1994 Republican Revolution. Upward of 90 percent are registered Democrats, and concentrations in a handful of key states put them in position to push the Democrats over the top - if they vote.
"Ninety-two percent of the black vote is concentrated in 23 of the most populous states," said David Bositis, senior policy analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. "In those states, the black vote - not just the direction but the turnout - will be critical matters in terms of the outcome of the election."
In California, the nation's most populous state and one crucial to Clinton's re-election, blacks are an estimated 7 percent of the voting-age population and could help to deliver the state's 54 electoral votes. The state ranks second only to New York in the number of black voters.
Among other states where black voters may shape the outcome: Illinois (where 13.4 percent of the voters are black); Michigan (12.8 percent); Ohio (10 percent); New Jersey (12.4 percent); Georgia (25 percent); North Carolina (20 percent) and Louisiana (28 percent).
Four years ago Clinton demonstrated his ability to win the black vote with a historic victory in Louisiana, where more than half his votes came from the black community - a first for a winner in presidential elections.
Voters like Logan know they're important but wonder if influence at the ballot box will translate into policies.
Logan lost his father to drug abuse as a child, flunked his way through high school, was jailed as a youth for a series of drug-related offenses and written off "to spend the rest of his life in prison," he said.
Logan said neither candidate has offered solutions to the problems he has experienced.
"I see a lot of good programs come in, and then lose funding ... I know a lot of good people who love to work with these kids, and instead they're cleaning toilets because we can't pay them," said Logan, whose program fosters academic and athletic excellence among African American kids.
Some African Americans say their best hope is allegiance to Clinton, who earned 92 percent of the black vote in 1992.
"I don't believe Dole has a chance, because Republicans haven't addressed issues of concern to our community. And issues are what it's all about," said Karen Huggins, a community activist in San Francisco's Potrero Hill housing projects.
Those concerns, Huggins said, include solving the long-term problems of too few jobs, inefficient public services and inadequate police protection.
What can Republicans do to convince black voters they care?
"Nothing," said Ronald Walters, a political scientist at Howard University in Washington, D.C. The election in "1994 scared the hell out of black voters. ... This time, they have an even stronger motive for voting."
Reviving a Democratic majority in Congress is the priority of many African American voters, Walters said, because it would restore power and clout to the Congressional Black Caucus.
"If the caucus regains its power, that's the strongest position from which (African Americans) can deal," Walters said.
Still, some blacks aren't sold on Clinton, Walters said, because he has "taken the wrong position on a number of things."
Walters cited, for example, the president's withdrawal of Lani Guinier's nomination for assistant attorney general in charge of civil rights in the face of conservatives dubbing her the "quota queen" and his dismissal of Surgeon General Joycelyn Elders.
Bositis, however, countered that Clinton has worked hard to secure the continued backing of black voters.
"He supported affirmative action ... and set up a strong contrast between himself and the Republicans in Congress," Bositis said. "On a whole variety of scores, including judicial appointments and other appointments, he fence-mended and totally secured his black support for the 1996 election."
But middle-class black conservatives passionately disagree.
"I dare (Clinton) to assume he's going to get our vote," said Jonathan Leonard, a Republican candidate for the 47th Assembly District in the heart of Los Angeles' largely black Crenshaw District.
Leonard said middle-class blacks are socially conservative and their positions on crime, welfare, affirmative action, jobs and the economy could make them receptive to a Republican message - and to Dole.
He said, "We have to offer something for these people ... to give them a reason to come out and vote."
Leonard admitted that the GOP has not reached out to blacks, particularly in Democratic strongholds like inner-city Los Angeles. Leonard, who headed the state's first "Colin Powell for President" campaign office, said he made strong efforts to encourage Republican registration among his neighbors.
Yet with a Powell vice-presidential candidacy unlikely, he said, "They ain't buyin'. People like (Pat) Buchanan drive them up the wall. They say rich Republicans are against us, so the Republican Party is against us."
Clinton has become "brilliant at speaking to the black conservative community," Bositis said. "When he talks about school uniforms, personal responsibility, getting tough on crime, making neighborhoods safe ... his message resonates strongly with black people.
"I know moderate Republicans really like Bob Dole, and black Republicans really like Bob Dole - but most of them aren't so sure they like their party, which is a problem," Bositis said.
Bositis said national surveys of black voters conducted by the Joint Center show that even black Republicans were split between Dole and Clinton.
Much will ride on their turnout. Local voter registration drives, "Rock the Vote" efforts to lure young voters and Operation Big Vote, run by the National Coalition on Black Voter Participation, are attempts to spur blacks to the polls in 1996, Walters said.
"The Democratic National Committee has brought in a number of ministers to mobilize (voters)," he said. "You didn't see all this last time."
Young blacks, 18 to 24, may not hear the message. Fewer than one in five eligible black youths voted in the last presidential election, studies show.
(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service.)