GOP challenger Chris Cannon is in a horse race with Rep. Bill Orton in the 3rd Congressional District. But Republicans Merrill Cook and Rep. Jim Hansen hold healthy leads over their Democratic opponents in their U.S. House races, the latest Deseret News/KSL poll shows.
Cannon still trails three-term incumbent Democrat Orton - 38 percent to 50 percent, found pollster Dan Jones & Associates. But compared to the cakewalks Orton has had the past three elections, a 12-percentage-point lead this early in the race isn't that much in the conservative 3rd District.Cook continues to dominate the 2nd District race when compared to his Democratic rivals. Local attorney Ross Anderson gets only 26 percent support to Cook's 59 percent support. Cook's toughest contests so far have been in the Republican Party; he barely got out of the GOP state convention and won a close contest over Todd Neilson in the June Republican primary.
Hansen hasn't had a close re-election race in a decade in the 1st District. Hansen leads Democrat Greg Sanders, a Davis County attorney, 60 percent to 24 percent, found Jones.
Since his upset victory in the 1990 3rd District race, Orton has counted on crossover votes from Republicans to win. In the latest poll, Orton still gets considerable GOP support; 30 percent of those who said they are Republicans said they favor Orton. He also gets 62 percent of the independent vote, another critical sector for Orton.
Salt Lake and Utah counties are key to the district. In conservative Utah County, Orton has 46 percent support to Cannon's 45 percent. In past elections, Orton has handily carried the Salt Lake County vote, and he leads Cannon 64 percent to 20 percent in West Valley City and other westside county areas that are in the 3rd District.
Jones found that among those who said they were very interested in the 3rd District contest, Cannon actually has a slight lead - 50 percent to 47 percent. Part of Orton's challenge this year is clearly to turn out the vote in his district, for his chances increase greatly if he does.
Anderson didn't have a stellar public relations week last week when the poll was conducted by Jones. Anderson's stand on same-sex marriage was in the news and may have held him down in the poll.
Still, Cook's showing against Anderson is impressive in the 2nd District, which has been held by Democrats eight of the past 10 years.
In his intraparty campaign this year, Cook maintained that he was the GOP candidate who could get the independent and even the wavering Democratic vote in the district - which includes the east half of Salt Lake City, the eastside of the county and all cities in the county except West Valley City.
Jones' poll shows that, so far, Cook's claims are true. Jones found that Cook is favored by 58 percent of the independent voters and 23 percent of the Democratic voters.
Cook gets only 72 percent of the Republican vote, however. While large, that shows that one-out-of-four Republicans are looking elsewhere, maybe still upset over Cook's eight years and three campaigns outside of the Republican Party. Cook rejoined the Republican Party earlier this year.
Twelve percent of the Republicans said they'd vote for Anderson, and 14 percent of the Republicans said they are still undecided, Jones found.
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ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Deseret News/KSL poll
If the election for Congress in the 1st District were held today and the candidates were Jim Hansen (R) and Greg Sanders (D), for whom would you vote?
DEFINITELY HANSEN 37%
PROBABLY HANSEN 23%
DEFINITELY SANDERS 17%
PROBABLY SANDERS 7%
OTHER 1%
DON'T KNOW 15%
If the election for Congress in the 2nd District were held today and the candidates were Merrill Cook (R) and Ross Anderson (D), for whom would you vote?
DEFINITELY ANDERSON 18%
PROBABLY ANDERSON 8%
DEFINITELY COOK 33%
PROBABLY COOK 26%
OTHER 2%
DON'T KNOW 13%
If the Election for Congress in the 3rd District were held today and the candidates were Chris Cannon (R) and Bill Orton (D), for whom would you vote?
DEFINITELY ORTON 26%
PROBABLY ORTON 24%
DEFINITELY CANNON 23%
PROBABLY CANNON 15%
OTHER 0%
DON'T KNOW 12%
Poll conducted July 21, 1996, by Dan Jones & Associates. Copyright 1996 Deseret News.
Dan Jones & Associates is an independent pollster who sometimes polls for private businesses and political candidates. In this election year Jones is polling for candidate Chris Cannon. The Deseret News/KSL poll was conducted separately by Jones from any political candidate clients he may have.
197 plus residents in each district.
Margin of error +/- 7%