Two years after the death of longtime ruler Kim Il Sung, North Korea is still a headless state. It may remain that way for some time.
Since Kim Il Sung died July 8, 1994, at age 82, international attention has focused on when his 54-year-old son and undisputed heir, Kim Jong Il, would ascend to power.Until recently, many had thought the junior Kim would take formal power on or around the second anniversary Monday of his father's death. But there has been no sign that will happen.
Now most analysts in Seoul think North Korea's power transfer will probably be postponed until after the third anniversary of the senior Kim's death.
"With its economy sinking and international isolation deepening, the power succession is not expected to be made this year," South Korean Unification Minister Kwon O-kie said in a recent television interview.
The father-to-son power shift would mark the first hereditary succession in a communist country.
Kim Jong Il, groomed for decades as heir to his father, became the head of North Korea's powerful military in 1991. He has yet to take the other two top posts his father held - president and ruling party chief.
Although few question Kim Jong Il's authority, his failure to assume his father's titles has spawned questions about possible health problems or a power struggle in the secluded society.
Even North Korean officials appear confused. In January, North Korea's ambassador to China, Ju Chang Jun, publicly said that the new leader would formally ascend to power after Monday's second anniversary.
But in late June, the speaker of North Korea's parliament, on a visit to Mexico, indicated that the junior Kim would delay his plan to take power until the latter half of next year.
"It is difficult for me to calculate the time. But come to see us in the autumn of next year," Yang Hyong Sop said in an interview with the newspaper El Sol de Mexico.
North Korean officials have said all along that Kim Jong Il would not rush to step into his father's place, claiming he is still observing Korea's traditional three-year mourning period.
But according to Korean custom, a three-year mourning period for Kim Il Sung would end on the second anniversary Monday. In Korea, a child is counted as a year old when he or she is born. The same is applied to the calculation of a person's death anniversary.
"Their way of counting a mourning period is against Korean customs," said Huh Mun-young, a senior analyst at the government-funded Research Institute for National Unification.
He said North Korea is trying to extend its mourning period to gain time to resolve its tangled economic and political problems.
"They are certainly in no mood to welcome a new leader - even if he is Kim Jong Il," Huh said.
With its economy in shambles, North Korea faces an acute food shortage following disastrous flooding last year.
North Korea's pariah image is hurting efforts to muster support for international aid. And its efforts to improve ties with Washington and Tokyo - its two main potential aid providers - are progressing slowly.
Under a 1994 nuclear accord, North Korea and the United States are working on exchanging liaison offices as a first step toward opening formal relations. But that's not likely to happen until late this year, at the earliest.