Every major stock market crash in history has resulted from two catalysts, notes Hussman Econo
metrics (34405 W. Twelve Mile Road, Farmington Hills, Mich. 48334). "A low level of stock yields (Standard & Poor's 500 dividend yield typically below 3 percent) and a rising interest-rate environment (rates above their level of 23 weeks earlier) have always preceded a crash. That the second is no longer the case makes our stock-market models much less negative."- Target Large Capitalization Value Portfolio, which is available only to members of Prudential's Target program, has returned 16.1 percent annually on average to investors over the past three years by sticking to two major subsectors of the large-cap value area: 1) stocks with low prices relative to normalized earnings; 2) stocks with bargain-level value ratios such as earnings yield and dividend yield. Recent favorites: Philip Morris, FNMA, American Home Products, ALCOA, Ahmanson, American Brands, National City.
- An excess of competition has hurt the retailing stocks. There are just too many stores. Still, a handful of retailers have all the qualities that long-term investors seek, says Paine Webber's Michael Exstein. "The prime companies are well-established and have large market shares, stable balance sheets and attractive cash flows." Money magazine (Time/Life Building, Rockefeller Center, New York, N.Y. 10020) recently asked eight top retailing analysts which stocks fit this bill. The favorite picks: May Department Stores, Dillard, Tandy, Price/Costco.
- "A high price/earnings ratio in a stock scares me," says Scott Schoelzel, manager of Janus Olympic Fund. "But some companies can grow into their high multiples." To find them, Schoelzel looks for issues whose earnings growth rates exceed their P/E ratios. Four recent favorites: Nike, St. John Knits (women's apparel) and two software companies: Applix and Electronics for Ima-ging.
- Over the past five years, the typical junk-bond fund has produced 13.4 percent average annual returns, vs. 7.7 percent for high-quality corporate funds. Investors who remember the 1990 bear market in junk should take heart, observes Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine (1729 H St. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006). "Even in the next recession, analysts doubt junk bonds will decline nearly as steeply as they did in the last, because the quality of junk bonds issued since then is so much higher."
- Worldwide fabrication demand for silver has exceeded total global mine output - plus scrap recycling - since 1990, observes Value Forecaster newsletter (P.O. Box 50, Pilot Hill, Calif. 95664). "The deficits for the past two years have been over 30 percent of all newly mined silver. Large supply surpluses lead to lower metal prices, while large deficits lead to higher prices. The current 30 percent-plus deficit, likely to persist for many years, is a very bullish fundamental for silver."
- Most new stock offerings aren't good long-term investments, observes Worth magazine (575 Lexington Ave., New York, N.Y. 10022). "Institutional investors, who get first crack at the best issues, cash in by selling out to individuals shut out of the deals. A study of 4,753 new issues in the Journal of Finance found that investors who bought each at the closing price on the first trading day would have had to invest 44 percent more than in similarly capitalized existing stocks to have the same profit five years later."