Utah's evolving climate is as uncertain as, well, a weather forecast.
But it's a safe bet long-term residents will tell you the climate's changing.One old-timer may tell you today's winters can't compare to years past. You know - when snowbanks topped trees and January northers froze eyelids shut.
The next guy might say it's never been wetter, pointing to recent record snowfall as evidence that Utah's on an Ice-Age cusp. Add to these arguments a growing list of well-publicized weather phenomena such as El Nino and global warming.
So, what gives? Is Utah's climate, defined as the average weather over a long period, really changing?
William Alder, chief meteorologist of the Utah office of National Weather Service, said 30-year measurements suggest Salt Lake City is getting wetter and hotter.
The differences, while gradual, are significant.
A little more than 12 annual inches of precipitation doused Utah in the 1920s. By the 1980s the norms had jumped to 17 inches.
The mean temperatures also seemed to be climbing, from 51.1 degrees at the close of the 1930s to 52.5 degrees by the end of the 1980s.
Alder also points to depth fluctuations in the Great Salt Lake, which indicates a gradual rise over the past 30 years.
Despite the apparent "wet warming" of the past 30 years, local weather types are reluctant to say Utah's climate is at a crossroad.
Utah's climate history is generally measured by eons instead of decades or even millennia.
"We just can't tell if things are changing," said state climatologist Donald Jensen, laughing. He admitted a sign of change could be muffled by the static of statistics and seasons.
"How do you determine climate has changed? It really is like looking for a needle in a haystack," said Randy Julander, supervisor of Utah's Snow Survey of the Natural Resource Conservation Service.
Climate typically changes over a long stretch of time, said Julander, although the state has recorded unusual snowfall extremes over the past 70 years.
"We are seeing greater climatic variables. That doesn't say we're getting hotter and colder; it just says we're bouncing around more," said Julander.
Perhaps we assume the climate is changing because we don't just aren't well-acquainted with the state's weather planning.
Today's Utahns likely aren't as climate-sensitive as their predecessors, when hundreds of local farmers and ranchers made and lost fortunes with the weather, Jensen said.
Now most of us work in climate-controlled offices, so a weekend of nasty weather prompts climate-change talk.
It has obviously warmed a bit in the past 10,000 years since much of the Beehive State was under Lake Bonneville and the landscape was dotted with glaciers. But the epoch since the Ice Age doesn't seem to reveal any dramatic, overall climatic shift, Jensen said.
Still, the state's 20th century overall weather patterns seem to be riding a snail-paced roller coaster, Jensen said.
The early decades of the century were marked by extreme episodes of flood and drought, followed by mild, steady conditions in the 1940s and 1950s when Utah enjoyed bumper crop harvests, Jensen said.
"Now we've seen a return to the extremes we saw in the early part of the century," Jensen said.
The state's record high and low (117 degrees at St. George and minues 69 degrees in Cache County) were set within six months of one another in 1985. Add the memorable floods of 1983 and recent record snow depths and it's understandable why some folks assume a climate-in-flux.
It's no wonder. Utah enjoys a mixed climatic bag.
"In the extreme southwestern area of Utah cotton can be grown, while in the higher valleys of northern Utah only grasses and some cereal grains are effectively cultivated," according to "Utah's Weather and Climate," a recently published book highlighting the Beehive State's unique weather history and patterns. "In some of the higher mountains permanent snow-fields can be found."
Weather buffs gotta love living with such diversity.
Flash floods, hailstorms, tornadoes, blizzards and droughts can all be found in Utah's recent climate past. Hurricanes may be the only weather phenomena yet to visit the state, although remnants of hurricanes encroach our borders, according to "Utah's Weather and Climate."
The uninhabitable warmth that marked the Earth's early existence gave way to a cooling trend in the Utah region about 200 million to 250 million years ago. Widespread drought about 150 million years ago formed giant sand dunes that eventually became Utah's dramatic canyon ranges, according to "Utah's Weather and Climate."
As recently as 100,000 years ago, Utah shifted into an ice age that witnessed the development of that inland sea dubbed Lake Bonneville that covered much of Utah.
Some scientists believe we're now living in a "warm" interglacial period, with a cooler period looming.
Check back in another 10,000 years to see if they're right.
Meanwhile, enjoy the ever-changing seasons. Utah may seem to shift from sizzling summers to snowbound winters, but you can still tell the four seasons.