Just three years ago, Democrats owned two of Utah's three U.S. House seats. Both are now held by GOP freshmen - historically the most vulnerable of incumbents.
But national Democratic leaders don't even list those two Utah races among their 45 best chances nationally at gaining back some seats next year - meaning the party's biggest money and major early efforts are, for now, being targeted elsewhere.That news was delivered last week by House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt and Rep. Martin Frost, D-Texas, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
It came in a press conference where they discussed the better-than-average, realistic chances that Democrats have of winning back control of the House next year.
Democrats need only an 11-seat gain for that to happen. Last year, they had a nine-seat gain (after Republicans had a whopping 50-seat gain in 1994 to capture the House for the first time in four decades).
Democrats came so close to winning control back last year that if just 11,899 people had switched votes in 11 districts nationwide, the House would already be in Democratic hands.
And since then, GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich has been fined $300,000 for ethics violations, survived an attempt by some fellow Republicans to depose him and has suffered low ratings in opinion polls.
Also, Republicans have more hard-to-defend seats than Democrats next year. For example, of the 34 House districts where winners had 51 percent or less of the vote, 24 are held by Republicans.
So Gephardt and Frost unveiled a list of 45 seats where they figure their chances are best for capturing GOP seats. It includes some freshmen who are not yet well-entrenched, other members who won by small margins, some who are tainted by scandal and seats left open by retirement.
But that list of 45 did not include the Utah seats of GOP freshman Reps. Chris Cannon (who last year unseated Rep. Bill Orton, D-Utah), or Merrill Cook (who had lost numerous races before replacing scandal-hurt Enid Greene, R-Utah, who in turn had unseated Rep. Karen Shepherd, D-Utah).
Being left off the top 45 means big Democratic donors and major party efforts are being guided to other districts first. (However, it also means national Republicans will also likely focus elsewhere, leaving Utah candidates largely on their own.)
Todd Taylor, executive director of the Utah Democratic Party, said local Democrats have been arguing with national leaders that Lily Eskelsen - a former Utah Education Association president who is running against Cook - should have been on that top 45 list.
"The only thing I think we lack is hard polling data" showing the race is close and potentially winnable, he said. But until local Democrats conduct such polls - or the media does - Eskelsen won't be on any such list. So she may be missing out on important early organizing money.
Taylor said the main reason Cannon's district also isn't on the list is that no Democrat has firmly jumped into that race yet - although Kurt Bestor (a local composer well known for writing, for example, the theme for ABC Monday Night Football) is seriously considering it.
"Quite frankly, I believe that if Kurt Bestor gets in that race, it will become one of the top campaigns nationally," Taylor said.
In Utah's other House race, Democratic stockbroker Steve Beierlein has said he is taking on eight-term incumbent Rep. Jim Hansen, R-Utah. But Hansen's recent runaway wins in a largely Republican district have made both parties see him as tough to beat.
All that doesn't mean Democrats can't win in Utah. For example, back in 1990 Orton won a stunning victory in what was considered to be the most Republican district in the nation with almost no money or support from the national party - thanks in large part to self-destruction by feuding Republicans.
But in what should be a year of hope for Utah Democrats facing two yet-to-be-firmly-entrenched freshmen, their national party isn't even talking a good fight yet - meaning the money and support for a real fight hasn't left the station yet either.