Clair Christensen knows exactly where he'll be at midnight on New Year's Eve 1999: in his office, waiting to see how the state's computers react when the clock ticks in the year 2000.
Christensen, manager of systems programming and data security, will join a handful of other employees who've already agreed to skip parties and hoopla to be on computer watch.Forget the Time's Square countdown and its ball of lights. The big event as the world marches into a new century is 00, the two digits at the center of what's called "the Year 2000 problem."
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. refers to the Year 2000 problem as the programming world's "dirty little secret."
Decades ago when memory space was a scare commodity, programmers developed a six-digit standard to represent dates. In that code, today is 05/11/97.
Only two slots represent the year, since the century was assumed to be "19." The standard saved lots of space and seemed smart, since few programmers expected the systems they devised to still be in use in the next century.
But they are. And many of those systems can't tell the difference between "1900" and "2000." A lot of electronic devices that use integrated circuits whose functions are tied to dates and times have the same problem.
If the systems and devices aren't replaced or adjusted, the year 2000 could trigger data disasters such as:
- You decide to call your parents in California at midnight on Dec. 31, 1999, to wish them a happy New Year. The call spills over into the first hour of January 2000. The call is billed as 52 million minutes long.
- Jan. 1, 2000, dawns. It's a Saturday, but the date-based security system in your office building believes it's Jan. 1, 1900 - a Monday. It unlocks all entrances and offices in the building.
- You turn 65 on Jan. 2, 2000. Yahoo! You qualify for Social Security, but the system rejects you because according to its calculations you won't be born until 1935.
"I would not be on an airplane when midnight rolls around on Dec. 31, 1999," said William Ulrich, a California consultant and author of "The Year 2000 Software Systems Crisis: Challenge of the Century."
Airplanes, satellite tracking systems, gasoline pumps, credit card readers, elevators, fighter jets and automobiles all use embedded micro-processors that rely on time-based information.
The problem is not just with mainframe computers that use archaic programming languages like COBOL and Ada and JOVIAL. Personal computers and mass market software programs may be prone to Year 2000 problems, too, experts say.
"You can't tell by looking at a computer program whether or not it's going to have a problem until you start digging into its innards and doing some serious testing," said John Horton, chairman of the Utah Year 2000 Users Group.
Large businesses essentially have three options for dealing with Year 2000 problems: Add coding that expands the year slot of a date from two to four digits; add logic to the computer systems so it knows how to correctly interpret "00"; or replace the system altogether.
Most companies are adding logic, Ulrich said.
"Changing the code so it can recognize the century is a little less time consuming and it's easier to test," he said. But it's not a clean solution since it doesn't permanently fix the problem and has the potential to introduce errors into code.
"It's like sticking a piece of gum on a tire with a hole in it and filling it with air so you can get to the next gas station," Ulrich said. "It's a compromise."
There is the potential, too, that systems that have not been fixed will corrupt other systems by feeding them erroneous data.
"Our biggest concern is the interfacing of systems," Christensen said, noting in particular the federal government's slow response in addressing its own Year 2000 problems.
Some analysts estimate that 93 percent of all computer programs, containing 180 billion lines of code, are date sensitive and need to be fixed. Analysts peg the worldwide cost of addressing the Year 2000 problem at $200 billion to $600 billion.
A bit of good news: About 80 percent of businesses are aware of the Year 2000 problem, said Matt Hotle, a research director for the Gartner Group, a Connecticut research and advisory firm.
And some bad news: "A lot of people have been thinking good thoughts about this," Hotle said. "Not a lot have been translating those thoughts into action."
Meanwhile, the clock is ticking.
By 1999, according to Ulrich, stories of system failures will become common as computers that haven't been fixed make faulty projections and calculations.
And system failures will undoubtedly lead to business failures. "There is a potential for business failure within this context," Hotle said. Though Gartner hasn't quantified the potential, Hotle points out that even a 1 percent collapse is still a substantial number of firms worldwide.
Analysts say information systems must be fixed - replaced or updated - by Jan. 1, 1999, in order to provide time to test for glitches.
Some companies can't wait that long, such as insurance companies that rely on date projection tables to write policies and hotels that book reservations years in advance.
"We started preparing for the year 2000 in 1987," said Dennis Bosma, manager of information systems for Kahler Realty Corp., whose 23 properties include the Salt Lake Hilton, Provo Park, Ogden Park, University Park, Olympia Park hotels and the Residence Inn in Provo.
Kahler developed a property management and reservation system that will track dates accurately through 2056. "Frankly, after that I don't give a damn," Bosma said.
Bryce Ragland, an electronics engineer at Hill Air Force Base, is part of a team of 150 people that has worked since 1995 to check and update the U.S. Air Force's approximately 4,500 information and electronic systems. He's also written a book on the topic titled "The Year 2000 Problem Solver: A Five-Step Disaster Prevention Plan."
Step one - awareness - has proved a stumbling block in the military, he said.
"A lot of managers are not taking this seriously because they figure they will be on to their next assignment before the year 2000 hits and they don't want to spend a lot of money on the problem now."
The sorts of disasters the Air Force hopes to avert: a break in the defensive monitoring systems around U.S. borders or command and control systems that fail to track weapons after they're launched. The Air Force expects to have its critical systems ready for the millennium by mid-1998.
"We plan to spend the rest of the time testing the systems to make sure they work correctly," Ragland said.
His biggest worry? "That maybe one of these Third World countries will decide to launch . . . a Scud missile at us to see if our defenses are up," he said.
For most businesses the Year 2000 issue only bobbed to the surface in the past year, as shown by attendance at Utah Year 2000 Users Group meetings. The group's first meeting in October attracted about 18 people. Attendance has doubled, and there are 140 people on the group's mailing list.
Zions Data Services Co., which handles technology for Zions Bank Corp., turned three people loose full time on its Year 2000 project about a year ago. It is using a triage approach - assessing the most critical systems first - to check and test the bank's 100 to 200 software applications.
Danne Buchanan, president of Zions Data Services Co., estimates the bank will spend $500,000 to $750,000 to make sure its systems can tell the difference between the 20th and 21st centuries. Target date for bringing critical systems up to speed: July 1998.
Christensen estimates the state, which also launched its efforts a year ago, will spend roughly $7 million to address Year 2000 problems. It hired a consulting firm, Data Dimensions, to provide some assistance, but most agencies are tackling the problem on their own.
"We're just doing it like everybody else - one line of code at a time," Christensen said.
There are two other reasons, though, that companies should go on the offensive to solve Year 2000 issues. Analysts say businesses that postpone action may be held liable by shareholders and partners.
Capers Jones, chairman of Software Productivity Research Inc. in Massachusetts, says it may potentially lead to the "most expensive litigation in human history."
The Gartner Group also believes businesses need to worry about "people poaching" as companies fight each other for programmers, especially those skilled in older computer languages, testers, project managers and consultants with expertise in Year 2000 issues.
"It's everybody against everybody else," Hotle said.
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ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Protect yourself
Author William Ulrich suggests that, beginning in January 1999, you should:
1. Keep a paper trail of and document all electronic transactions. Hang on to receipts, bank statements, etc.
2. Scrutinize and store financial statements through the first part of 2000.
3. Run a test on your own home computer's internal clock. Set it ahead to January 2000 and run through your programs to see it they function correctly. Test financial and spreadsheet programs.
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Year 2000 Web sites
The Year 2000 Information Center
(http://www.year2000.com)
Vendor and consultant contacts, e-mail list-groups, articles, job lists, awareness products, users groups and links to other sites.
The National Bulletin Board for Year 2000
(http://www.it2000.com)
Articles, tools, service, seminars, users groups, etc.
The Complete Y2K Web site
(http://www.pirkle-websites.com)
Deals specifically with COBOL legacy systems
A Year 2000 reading list
"The Year 2000 Software Systems Crisis: Challenge of the Century" by Ian Hayes and William Ulrich. Called "the bible" by Computerworld.
"The Year 2000 Problem Solver: A Five-Step Disaster Prevention Plan" by Bryce Ragland. Ragland is a civilian employee at Hill Air Force Base. Computerworld describes the book as a "good primer."
"Solving the Year 2000 Problem" by Jim Keogh. Among the handful of most recommended books on the topic.
"Managing OO: Surviving the Year Computing Crisis" by Peter de Jager and Richard Bergeon. The book ships June 1. Considered the guru of the Year 2000 problem, de Jager put together The Year 2000 Information Center Web site, lsited above.
Local users group:
The Utah Year 2000 Users Group meets monthly to hear speakers and share approaches on the problem. For information contact John Horton at 240-2431 or by e-mail at jlhorton@chq.byu.edu