Pope John Paul II's first visit to this Arab nation Saturday comes as Christians here - once the ruling majority - fret over their declining numbers and influence.
The estimated 1.4 million Christians, most of them Catholic, now find themselves a minority whose influence has waned as that of Muslims has grown since the end of the sectarian 1975-90 civil war.Sarkis Naoum, a columnist for the independent daily newspaper An-Nahar, estimates Christians now make up no more than 40 percent of Lebanon's 3.2 million residents.
"I am not very optimistic," he said, adding that the postwar political system needs more guarantees of a continued role for Chris-tians.
Christian leaders - as well as Muslims - are careful to stress that the pope should show solidarity with all of the country, a mosaic of 18 religious sects sharing many of the same problems.
"This visit will be an encouragement for all the Lebanese to have confidence in themselves and in their country," said Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir of the Maronite Catholic Church.
The patriarch has emerged as something of an opposition leader facing the Syrian-backed government of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
The Syrian forces in Lebanon are to be a focus of the pontiff's two-day trip. He is to announce a response to the 1995 Vatican synod of Lebanese Catholics, which called for withdrawal of the Syrians as well as the Israeli forces that occupy a portion of the south.
But many Muslims, while agreeing that the Israelis should leave, welcome the Syrian army as a force to keep the peace.
Hariri has said the pope's visit will have no effect on the Syrian presence.
He hopes the visit will show off Lebanon's reconstruction and serve as "a sign of blessing for the coexistence" among religious groups after the bitter civil war.
The pope is to spend 32 hours in Lebanon, holding a session with 12,000 youths in the Christian heartland north of Beirut and a Mass for 300,000 people in Beirut's devastated downtown.
In its biggest display of force since the civil war, the government is sending 20,000 soldiers and policemen - or about one-quarter of its security forces - into Beirut streets to protect the pope.
At Lebanon's independence from France in 1943, Christians were 55 percent of the population and gained control under a formula that gave Christians five seats in Parliament to every four for Muslims.
Since then, Christian emigration - especially after the war - and a high Shiite Muslim birth rate have eroded the majority. Under a new formula, Christians share power 50-50 with Muslims.
Now the Christians fear being swallowed up in the primarily Muslim region.