When the cost of cigarettes goes up, the number of smokers declines. That is a fact. Experts disagree only about the exact number.
Here's another fact: When the cost of cigarettes goes up, the decline in smokers is greatest among teenagers.Critics say the $206 billion tobacco settlement signed last week (Utah's share is $836 million), is nothing more than a disguised tax increase on smokers. Nearly all the money tobacco companies pay to the states will come from increases in the costs of their products. Indeed, two major companies raised prices by 45 cents a pack on the day the settlement was signed.
But is this a bad thing?
The Congressional Budget Office and the General Accounting Office both have done studies that show the number of cigarettes adults smoke drops by 4 percent for every 10 percent increase in price. With the settlement, the price of a pack of cigarettes is expected to rise by 25 percent, which would lead to a 10 percent decline consumption.
The figures aren't easily verified, and some experts believe the decline would be closer to 6 percent. But no one argues that price doesn't count. And when it comes to teenagers, price counts much more. Estimates show a 7 percent decline for every 10 percent increase in costs.
Two more facts are important to keep in mind. The first is that nearly every adult smoker began the habit as a teenager. Once a person becomes an adult without the smoking habit, he or she is not going to start.
The second fact is that smoking has risen by about 33 percent among teenagers over the last five years. Statistics show that one-third of all teen smokers eventually will die from diseases related to smoking. Obviously, anything that reduces the incentive to smoke in this age group should be applauded.
The tobacco settlement isn't perfect, but it also isn't a tax. Only the so-called big four companies -- Philip Morris, R.J. Reynolds, Lorillard and Brown & Williamson -- have to pay. Other, smaller companies can keep their prices low. The settlement is what the states say it is -- a deal that requires damage payments. And the damage is the enormous cost states have had to bear for Medicaid patients with smoking-related illnesses.
Critics say the price increase will hurt the poor most. That's an odd way of looking at it. Here's a better way: Smoking hurts the poor most because, for whatever reason, they are more prone to acquiring the habit, and once they acquire the habit their chances in life become limited.
That is more than just another fact. It is an injustice worth fixing.