Utah's economy perked up a bit in November over the previous month, according to the monthly Mountain States Purchasing Managers Business Conditions Index, moving up from an index of 40.9 to 42.5.
But it wasn't enough to keep the overall Mountain States Business Conditions Index from hitting its lowest point since March 1996, down from 50.5 in October to 48.4 last month.The monthly poll of purchasing managers in Utah, Colorado and Wyoming is considered a leading economic indicator since it forecasts purchasing activity of business and government in the three states.
It is produced by Ernie Goss, a professor of economics at Creighton University in Omaha, who uses the same criteria as the National Association of Purchasing Managers, which has been producing a monthly economic survey since 1931.
The index ranges from 0 to 100. An index number above 50 indicates an expanding economy while an index under 42 indicates a contracting economy.
"The manufacturing sector in Utah has softened considerably over the past few months," said Goss. "We expect this to spill over into the overall economy of the state, reining in the fast-paced growth we've seen over the past few years in Utah."
Despite the slowdown, Goss said he is still projecting positive growth for Utah, just not as strong as it has been in recent years. He also predicts that retail sales in Utah through the end of the year will be below last year's holiday sales figures.
His poll of purchasing managers indicates low prices and a shortage of qualified workers are continuing to squeeze many companies in the Mountain States.
The purchasers reported increased employment costs and significant price competition are continuing to shrink corporate profits.
The results of the past few surveys indicate that the holiday shopping season will be "good but not great" for Mountain States retailers, said Goss, who holds a chair in regional economics at Creighton.
Some stores are having trouble hiring seasonal workers. "I think national projections of sales 5-6 percent above last year are too optimistic. I think the holiday shopping season will be 3-4 percent above last year" for the Mountain States.
Wyoming's November economic index was the strongest of the three states at 56.7. Colorado was in the middle at 47.5.