PROVO -- Despite layoffs at Geneva Steel and some earlier shakiness among Utah Valley's high-profile computer companies, the area's economy will remain strong.
"Utah County is in good shape," said Jeff Thredgold, president of Thredgold Economic Associates and consultant to Zion's Bank. "There's a lot of high-tech vibrancy."Obviously, he said, Geneva has had some difficulties, but with Novell bouncing back and new high-tech firms continuing to pop up, the outlook remains positive. Many of those who have lost technology jobs were absorbed by other local companies. Some started their own firms.
The biggest challenge Utah Valley businesses face is finding people to hire. The county's unemployment rate hovers between 2.3 percent and 2.8 percent, making its labor market even tighter than the rest of the Wasatch Front, Thredgold said. While that's good for workers, it's tough on employers.
Thredgold's comments about Utah Valley came after he spoke to the Provo/Orem Chamber of Commerce Friday about the state and national economies.
Reports that the majority of the 2.7 million new jobs created in the United States this year are low-skill, low-wage opportunities aren't true, Thredgold said. Knowledge-intensive professional and managerial specialties are the primary source of job creation, he said.
Education, he said, is the key to personal financial success. The demands and rewards are greater than ever before.
In 1980, the average college graduate earned 25 percent more than the average high school graduate. That's now up to 90 percent more overall and 99 percent more for women, Thredgold said.
Applied technology education, which used to be called vocational education, also is important as industries become more computer- dependent.
As for Y2K's potential impact on the economy, Thredgold doesn't think there will be much.
"I don't see it as a huge issue," he said. Thredgold said he believes the "majority of the emotional concern is geared toward job creation by some lawyers and programmers."
The United States is spending $600 billion on the millennium bug, which Thredgold said is more than the rest of the world combined.
"I think the whole thing is overblown," he said. "Whatever problems we do come up with, we can address."
Thredgold also discussed Utah's economy.
The Rocky Mountain region -- Utah, Idaho, Nevada -- has been the single strongest economic region in the country the past eight years, Thredgold said. He said he expects more balance nationwide in the next few years.
Utah's economy is "slowing from 90 mph to 50 mph," Thredgold said, adding the slow-down is not a precursor to recession.
Net in-migration reached 21,000 three years ago. But with the California economy becoming more solid, fewer people are uprooting for Utah, dropping the number to an estimated 5,000 to 6,000 this year.
"In 1999, it might be close to zero," Thredgold said.
Utah's housing market remains strong as it leads the nation in price appreciation, he said. Just seven years ago, the state's real estate was among the cheapest in the country. "It is now above the national average, above the regional average," Thredgold said.
Property sales in Utah County are up slightly over last year. Prices continue to rise at some of the state's higher rates, he said.